UIPATH-RPAV1 candidate - UiPath RPA Associate v1.0 Updated: 2023
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UIPATH-RPAV1 UiPath RPA Associate v1.0
Test Detail:
The UiPath UIPATH-RPAV1 exam, also known as the UiPath RPA Associate v1.0 exam, is a certification assessment that validates an individual's knowledge and skills in using UiPath robotic process automation (RPA) technology. This certification is designed for professionals who work with UiPath RPA software and want to demonstrate their proficiency in implementing automation solutions.
Course Outline:
The UiPath RPA Associate course provides participants with a comprehensive understanding of UiPath RPA technology and its application in automating business processes. The following is a general outline of the key areas covered in the certification program:
1. Introduction to RPA:
- Understanding the fundamentals of RPA and its benefits.
- Exploring the role of RPA in digital transformation and process automation.
- Introduction to UiPath RPA platform and its features.
2. UiPath Studio:
- Navigating the UiPath Studio interface.
- Creating and managing automation projects.
- Understanding activities, variables, and data types.
- Using selectors to interact with application elements.
3. Workflow Design:
- Designing automation workflows using flowcharts and diagrams.
- Implementing decision-making and branching logic.
- Managing exceptions and error handling in workflows.
- Using control flow activities for looping and iteration.
4. Data Manipulation and Automation:
- Working with data in UiPath, including variables and data tables.
- Extracting data from different sources, such as spreadsheets and databases.
- Using built-in activities for data manipulation and transformation.
- Automating data entry and retrieval tasks.
5. Orchestrator and Deployment:
- Understanding the role of UiPath Orchestrator in managing automation processes.
- Deploying and scheduling automation projects.
- Monitoring and troubleshooting running processes.
- Configuring security and access controls in UiPath Orchestrator.
Exam Objectives:
The UiPath UIPATH-RPAV1 exam evaluates candidates' knowledge and skills in using UiPath RPA technology effectively. The exam objectives include, but are not limited to:
1. Demonstrating proficiency in using UiPath Studio to design and develop automation workflows.
2. Applying best practices in workflow design, including exception handling and control flow.
3. Manipulating data using variables, data tables, and built-in activities.
4. Interacting with application elements using selectors and UI automation techniques.
5. Understanding the role of UiPath Orchestrator in managing and deploying automation projects.
Syllabus:
The UiPath RPA Associate certification program typically includes comprehensive training provided by UiPath or authorized training partners. The syllabus provides a breakdown of the courses covered throughout the course, including specific learning objectives and milestones. The syllabus may include the following components:
- Introduction to RPA and UiPath RPA technology
- UiPath Studio overview and workflow design
- Data manipulation and automation using UiPath
- UiPath Orchestrator and deployment
- exam preparation and practice tests
- Final UiPath RPA Associate v1.0 Certification Exam
UiPath Associate candidate
Other UiPath exams
UIPATH-ARDV1 UiPath Advanced RPA Developer v1.0UIPATH-RPAV1 UiPath RPA Associate v1.0
UIPATH-RPAV1 Braindumps
UIPATH-RPAV1 Real Questions
UIPATH-RPAV1 Practice Test
UIPATH-RPAV1 dumps free
UiPath
UIPATH-RPAV1
UiPath RPA Associate v1.0
http://killexams.com/pass4sure/exam-detail/UIPATH-RPAV1
Question: 43
In which workflow in the UiPath Robotic Enterprise Framework template is the retry mechanism implemented?
A . The SetTransactionStatus workflow
B . The Main workflow
C . The GetTransactionData workflow
Answer: B
Question: 44
One of the steps in your process is to authenticate on a web application.
How can you check if the login succeeded or not?
A . Check the return value of the Login activity
B . Place the login activities inside a Try-Catch block. An exception is thrown in case a login problem occurs
C . Use an Element Exist activity to check whether the login succeeded by searching for an element that us only
displayed in that case
Answer: C
Question: 45
How can you retrieve the value stored in a Queue Item variable?
A . Use the Deserialize Xml activity
B . Use the SpecificContent property
C . Use the Deserialize Json activity
Answer: B
Question: 46
What do the Items in the Orchestrator queues consist of ? Select all the options that apply
A . Processes to be executed by the robots
B . Jobs to be executed by the robots
C . Input data for the processes executed by the robots
Answer: A,B,C
Question: 47
What type of argument can you define to pass data and retrieve the modified value from an invoked workflow?
A . In
B . In/Out
C . Out
Answer: B
Question: 48
What are the uses of Web Scrapping in UiPath?
A . Extracting lists or other structured data from a web page
B . Extracting all the information from a web page
C . Extracting the images from a web page
D . Extracting the content of a table from a web page
Answer: A
Question: 49
Which of the following actions should be represented as one step in the Robot Path?
A . Typing a value in a field and clicking Validate
B . Opening a menu and selecting an option
C . Clicking a button in an application
D . Selecting a keyword in a text
Answer: A,B,C
Question: 50
If your automation uses 2 Excel files(besides the Workspace),how man Excel File Cards do you need in StudioX?
A . Because we can reference all the Excel files with it
B . since there are 2 Excel files
C . as the Workspace would need its own Card
D . None, we don�t use Cards for Excel files
Answer: B
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Kill your exam at First Attempt....Guaranteed!
While in Las Vegas for the HR Technology Conference show a couple of weeks ago, I had the opportunity to also catch a bit of the UiPath user conference, FORWARD VI. As a result, I got to meet with Brigette McInnis-Day, Chief People Officer of UiPath. Brigette previously spent a number of years as an HR executive at SAP, SAP SuccessFactors , and Google Cloud.
McInnis-Day came to UiPath to drive HR automation initiatives and elevate the employee experience – a great objective that is massive in scale. That mandate could include a number of things including the creation of:
- A fair, fun, quick, legal, pleasant recruiting experience
- Great onboarding and day 1 experiences
- Accurate payrolls
- Etc.
But it also requires understanding who the great managers/executives are and which ones are creating retention, morale and other problems. Ultimately, the goal in creating a great employee experience should be to create an environment that causes employees to stay years longer than they otherwise would have.
Mcinnis-Day told me that her role was not just to bring end-to-end process automation to HR (which is the narrow view some competitors of UiPath or implementers of RPA solutions see of the world/opportunity). Her role is to enhance the employee experience (of all employees, not just HR staff) in addition to bringing end-to-end automation to HR. That perspective is spot-on.
And, of course, a great employee experience needs some unexpected, pleasant surprises. This could be praise from a customer, a manager sending an encouraging note, a colleague expressing gratitude to another employee, etc. While an occasional piece of company swag might be welcome from time to time, the best experience could just be having an empathetic boss that does little things that make a big difference (e.g., providing some schedule flexibility to someone with a sick child or elder parent).
UiPath and HR
UiPath has been a big player in the automation space. Like some of their competitors, their toolkit also contains robotic process automation, AI/ML capabilities, process mining and more. Unlike their competitors, UiPath has really staked out the HR area as a key area for process-oriented solutions.
Why focus on HR? HR teams often:
- Have a number of best of breed solutions (e.g., employment verification, recruiting, numerous payrolls, etc.) that are poorly, if at all, integrated
- Become inundated with phone calls and emails during peak demand moments (e.g., annual benefits enrolment, college recruiting season, annual performance reviews, etc.)
- Must prepare regulatory/compliance reports
- Straighten out Payroll-to-General Ledger journal entries even though accounting is rarely a core competency of HR professionals
- Deal with error-prone processes (e.g., fixing time-entry errors and then re-processing payroll)
- Handle one-off, unplanned personnel matters (e.g., sudden terminations, wildcat strikes, pandemics)
- Etc.
Dealing with exceptions, diverse systems, numerous/varied constituents, regulators, re-organizations, etc. is par for the course in HR. It’s hard for HR to be strategic when the HR organization is constantly moving from one firefight to another. Tools that close automation gaps, recommend solutions, support employee self-service, remove errors, etc. go a long way to improving HR productivity and giving HR back the time that it needs to deliver better strategic outcomes for the firm.
UiPath believes better HR processes can deliver substantial business results/outcomes. According to their website, businesses could experience a 10X faster onboarding process, 40% improvement in ‘HR employee capacity’ and no compliance errors with better HR processes. The onboarding point alone is worth some additional discussion.
Onboarding should be painless, frictionless and quick for new hires. The faster they can become productive/operational, the sooner the firm gets the benefit of hiring them. But, there are other benefits worth noting. For example, when companies take the friction, boredom and unpleasantness out of outboarding, they create a better employee experience (EX). Turning onboarding from a chore/task to a positive work moment actually helps stem future attrition. People that have an unpleasant or unsatisfactory Day One work experience are less likely to recommend the employer to other jobseekers and are more likely to leave this job days/months/years sooner than desired.
There are a number of opportunities to use advanced technologies in other parts of HR. Recruiting is currently a hotbed of innovation as firms want to win the war for talent and turn recruiting into a competitive advantage for their firm. In short, companies want to:
- Speed up the time to recruit dramatically. They want to shorten the time from application (or resume receipt) to job offer to be as short as possible/practical. It does no good to spend a lot of money trying to reach jobseekers only to ignore them for days/weeks/months while competitors are scooping up the best and brightest of these.
- Hire better quality candidates.
- Spend more time cultivating relationships with potential jobseekers.
- Have automated tools or sophisticated AI/RPA tools do much of the resume screening and interview scheduling so that recruiters can focus more time on the highest potential jobseekers.
- Etc.
There are other opportunities for HR to use advanced technologies to help employees have a better employment experience. Employers can deploy smart bots, digital assistants, etc. to help employees resolve problems faster, get answers on their own, route workload, automatically schedule follow-up activities, etc. People, as it turns out, don’t live for 'administrivia' – let an RPA or AI tool resolve that stuff.
Advanced technologies can also help identify which employees (not just jobseekers) are great candidates for filling open positions or could do so with modest up-skilling or re-skilling efforts.
And, of course, if these advanced technologies can do a better job of coalescing diverse internal HR data with macro-economic, weather, demographic, operational and other data, just think of how much more strategic HR’s inputs to the operating and executive committee could be. Real-time information that can inform more insightful forecasts, budgets, re-organizations, etc. would be fast and painless to generate.
Specifics With UiPath and HR
UiPath has created a marketplace for a variety of product extensions, partner solutions and more. The screenshot below identifies a number of HR related tools that aid in certain HR processes (e.g., onboarding), integrate with key HRMS solutions (e.g., Workday and BambooHR) or deliver other HR capabilities.
UiPath has apparently had some success with its HR offerings already. Customer case studies from Amazon, Kelly Services and other firms are on its website. UiPath’s offerings essentially enhance, amplify or turbo-charge the HR, HRMS and other technologies a customer already has. UiPath’s solution coverage ranges from talent acquisition to offboarding and most everything in between.
Given the broad, all-encompassing nature of UiPath’s HR solutions, I asked McInnis-Day where a customer should start? She identified four focus areas to begin with:
(1) Strategic HR
Because what UiPath is offering is something that can trigger a material step-change in HR capabilities and value-add to the company, it’s important that an HR leader understand what the strategic implications will be to HR and the company. Some of the potential changes may trigger:
- A need to re-evaluate the metrics, work responsibilities, needed skills, etc. of the HR team
- An opportunity to re-cast HR’s role in the Executive Committee/Board and the new kinds of insights it can bring to bear in areas like forecasting, re-organizations, M&A, succession management, etc.
- A rethink of the firm’s culture, management practices, feedback, etc.,
In fact, if a CHRO is looking at process automation solutions for HR and isn’t thinking about the strategic change opportunities that are also possible, they may be either negligent or missing out on the transformative capabilities their firm might also derive if they do this work well.
Brigette indicated that the consultancy firm EY helps with some HR automation clients to develop net-new dashboards and metrics (e.g., sentiment analysis). I’d note that before any firm embarks on this kind of transformation that they need to thoughtfully and thoroughly benchmark the as-is state so as to measure progress and monitor the changes to come.
(2) Talent Experiences
These new technologies will not only automate activities and processes but they’ll change how people interact with the systems (e.g., process-enabled workflows, self-service apps, etc. ) and the value they’ll derive from them. It’s important to test new or modified processes to ensure that the ways all employees are interacting with them are working well, delighting users and delivering value. These new experiences should be delivering moments of delight for employees and not adding additional frustration, anxiety, costs or friction.
(3) Employee Engagement
Old management methods will likely get replaced as new technologies recast HR processes and technologies. The new processes should facilitate the capture/recording of meaningful work activities and add this to the performance data about a specific person. While some of that can help direct corrective or training needs, it must also provide a more complete, human touch to performance management. The goal is to help managers be more empathetic and aware of the totality of an employee’s work experience. If people know their skills and actions are valued/appreciated on an on-going basis, it should drive an improvement in their engagement levels and productivity.
(4) Employee Empowerment
New, advanced technologies can help radically reimagine what a job should entail, where the work can/should be completed and how it is completed. Incremental thinking and incremental technologies will not permit material changes to the way work is done and the role of employees in getting these tasks successfully completed.
New, advanced technologies can move HR (and other) employees out of repetitive, transaction-processing roles and into new roles where they provide more analytical insights and act in a more consultative fashion. The routine will get automated and the exceptions will get more of the time and attention. It’s the judgement of employees that will be highly valued and not the numbers of transactions completed. And, with these new responsibilities, employees will need new training and skills.
The OKRs
So, what are McInnis-Day's OKRs (Objectives and Key Results)? She mentioned that her objectives include:
- Accelerating career growth within UiPath’s employee base
- Increasing diversity within the company
- Cultivating world-class leadership
- Seeing UiPath as a role model for HR automation (and the step change in the capabilities it can trigger)
My take
It was a fast 30-minute meeting and, as such, couldn’t cover everything. For example, we didn’t get the time to discuss what UiPath’s HR team is doing to meet ESG reporting requirements. But, we did cover enough to see the scope and interest UiPath has in HR. It’s substantial.
I cover a number of UiPath’s competitors. Most of these are interested in pursuing vertical industry solutions (e.g., life insurance underwriting) instead of a cross-industry function like HR. There’s a huge market for back-office solutions like Finance and HR and it’s good to see UiPath here. Longer term, UiPath needs to expand and fortify its offerings in HR as old-school ERP vendors are starting to add AI/ML, process mining and other advanced capabilities to their offerings. That said, given the sheer numbers of diverse solutions a company has in their HR environment, I suspect the process automation opportunity in HR should remain robust for the foreseeable future.
My final thought is this: I heard that many HR professionals could not get travel budget to attend the HR Technology Conference. It’s hard for these HR pros to know or imagine what the art of the possible is for HR and advanced technologies if they can’t see it at shows like that. I’d encourage HR leaders to check out the usual HRMS suspects but also look at how far you could propel your HR group and your firm overall if you could see what other firms, like UiPath, can bring to the table. You’ll never have a strategic HR function if its technology is hopelessly stuck in a 20–30 year-old time warp.
Securities Litigation Partner James (Josh) Wilson Encourages Investors Who Suffered Losses In UiPath To Contact Him Directly To Discuss Their Options
If you purchased or acquired securities in UiPath stock or options between April 21, 2021 and March 30, 2022 and would like to discuss your legal rights, call Faruqi & Faruqi partner Josh Wilson directly at 877-247-4292 or 212-983-9330 (Ext. 1310). You may also click here for additional information: www.faruqilaw.com/PATH.
There is no cost or obligation to you.
New York, New York--(Newsfile Corp. - November 5, 2023) - Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP, a leading national securities law firm, is investigating potential claims against UiPath Inc. ("UiPath" or the "Company") (NYSE: PATH) and reminds investors of the November 6, 2023 deadline to seek the role of lead plaintiff in a federal securities class action that has been filed against the Company.
Faruqi & Faruqi is a leading minority and Woman-owned national securities law firm with offices in New York, Pennsylvania, California and Georgia.
The UiPath class action lawsuit alleges that defendants throughout the Class Period made false and/or misleading statements and/or failed to disclose that: (i) UiPath had enacted a widespread discounting program prior to its IPO, which had the effect of temporarily boosting UiPath's revenue and annualized recurring revenue ("ARR") metrics, cannibalizing its future sales, eroding UiPath's margins, and increasing the risk of client churn; (ii) UiPath's genuine total addressable market was not as large as portrayed by defendants, because many companies included in UiPath's market survey did not need the type of high-cost, high-functionality automation products offered by UiPath; (iii) UiPath was losing customers to Microsoft, ServiceNow, SAP, Salesforce, IBM, and other established enterprise software vendors that were building automation into their platforms; (iv) UiPath was losing customers due to the increased availability of low-code automation software offered by vendors, such as Microsoft's Power Automate software, which were capable of addressing the majority of customer use cases at a fraction of the price of UiPath's products and services; and (v) UiPath was suffering from a loss of channel sales due to strained relationships with UiPath's partners as a result of increased competition between UiPath and these partners.
On September 7, 2021, UiPath announced financial results for the quarter ended July 31, 2021. Specifically, UiPath revealed an unexpected slowdown in UiPath's revenues and reported ARR metrics. UiPath further revealed that it had engaged in substantial discounting of its products prior to the IPO and that UiPath was in the process of altering the structure of its contracts to include a "ramping" feature whereby customer contract commitments would start small and increase over time and thereby reduce the need for UiPath to offer widespread discounting as it had before. The UiPath class action lawsuit alleges that on this news, the price of UiPath common stock declined more than 12%.
Then, on December 8, 2021, UiPath announced its financial results for the quarter ended October 31, 2021. UiPath revealed that UiPath's growth had stalled further, disclosing that its ARR annual growth rate during the quarter had declined for the third quarter in a row to 58% and that its net new ARR remained subdued at 42% growth year-over-year, down substantially from the 55% growth reported in the first quarter 2022 earnings release. The UiPath class action lawsuit alleges that on this news, the price of UiPath common stock declined more than 7% over a two-day period.
Finally, on March 30, 2022, UiPath announced financial results for the quarter and year ended January 31, 2022. UiPath disclosed that it had earned revenues of just $289.7 million during the quarter, representing year-over-year growth of 39%. UiPath further revealed deeply disappointing ARR and revenue guidance, revealing that the declining growth trends adversely impacting UiPath were expected to continue. UiPath also announced the abrupt departure of Thomas Hansen, UiPath's Chief Revenue Officer, who was responsible for developing relationships with UiPath's current and prospective customers, expanding UiPath's partnership network, and fostering UiPath's developer community. The UiPath class action lawsuit alleges that on this news, the price of UiPath common stock declined more than 25%.
The court-appointed lead plaintiff is the investor with the largest financial interest in the relief sought by the class who is adequate and typical of class members who directs and oversees the litigation on behalf of the putative class. Any member of the putative class may move the Court to serve as lead plaintiff through counsel of their choice, or may choose to do nothing and remain an absent class member. Your ability to share in any recovery is not affected by the decision to serve as a lead plaintiff or not.
Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP also encourages anyone with information regarding UiPath's conduct to contact the firm, including whistleblowers, former employees, shareholders and others.
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Snowflake (SNOW -1.26%) and UiPath (PATH -3.59%) represent two different ways to invest in the growing artificial intelligence (AI) market. Snowflake's cloud-based data warehouse aggregates data from a wide range of computing platforms across an organization, cleans it up, and makes it easily accessible to third-party data visualization and analytics applications.
UiPath's software robots can be plugged into an organization's existing software to automate repetitive tasks like entering data, processing invoices, managing inventories, onboarding customers, and sending out mass emails.
But over the past 12 months, Snowflake's stock has declined 16% as UiPath's stock advanced 32%. Let's see why UiPath outperformed Snowflake by such a wide margin -- and if it will remain the better AI play for the foreseeable future.
Image source: Getty Images.
Snowflake's growth continues to cool off
Snowflake's product revenue, which accounts for most of its total sales, surged 120% in fiscal 2021 (which ended in January 2021) and 106% in fiscal 2022. But that figure only rose 70% in fiscal 2023, and it expects just 34% growth in fiscal 2024.
Its net revenue retention rate, which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer, also dipped to 142% in the second quarter of fiscal 2024 -- compared to 158% in fiscal 2023 and 178% in fiscal 2022. It mainly blamed that slowdown on the macroeconomic headwinds that drove more companies to rein in their software spending.
Yet Snowflake isn't cutting costs and laying off its staff to cope with that slowdown. Instead, it hired roughly 1,000 new workers in fiscal 2023 and plans to hire another 1,000 workers in fiscal 2024. That expansion implies it isn't too worried about its latest slowdown -- even as cloud giants like Amazon and Microsoft expand their own data warehousing platforms.
Its gross, adjusted operating, and free-cash-flow (FCF) margins have also consistently expanded since its initial public offering in September 2020. That expansion suggests economies of scale are kicking in, and analysts expect its adjusted earning per share (EPS) to grow 180% this year.
Over the long term, Snowflake expects to grow its product revenue at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% from fiscal 2024 through fiscal 2029 to reach its goal of generating $10 billion in product revenue by the final year. It believes it can hit that target by gaining more large enterprise customers.
UiPath expects its growth to accelerate again
UiPath's revenue rose 81% in fiscal 2021 (which ended in January 2021) and 47% in fiscal 2022, but grew just 19% in fiscal 2023 as the macro headwinds forced more companies to postpone their sweeping software upgrades. Its dollar-based net retention rate also dipped to 121% in the second quarter of fiscal 2024 -- compared to 123% at the end of fiscal 2023 and 145% at the end of fiscal 2022.
That deceleration, along with the rise of generative AI platforms like OpenAI's ChatGPT, which can be used to automate repetitive tasks, initially spooked the bulls. But in its latest quarter, UiPath predicted its revenue would accelerate again to 20%-21% growth in fiscal 2024 as the macro environment gradually improves. Analysts expect its revenue to grow at a steady CAGR of 19% from fiscal 2023 through fiscal 2026.
UiPath also believes generative AI won't represent an existential threat to its robotic process automation (RPA) services. Instead, it plans to use generative AI to upgrade its own software robots so they can process repetitive tasks more efficiently. The RPA market could still expand at a CAGR of 23% from 2022 to 2029, according to Fortune Business Insights, so it could still have plenty of room to expand its niche market.
UiPath's adjusted gross, adjusted operating, and FCF margins have all improved significantly over the past year, but a lot of that expansion was driven by cost-cutting measures and two rounds of layoffs (5% of its workforce last June and another 6% last November). Analysts expect its adjusted EPS to surge 193% in fiscal 2024.
The valuations and verdict
Snowflake was notoriously overpriced upon its public debut, and it still isn't cheap at 167 times forward earnings and 17 times this year's sales. UiPath trades at just 30 times forward earnings and 7 times this year's sales.
That's why investors clearly favored UiPath over Snowflake in this high interest rate environment, and I believe that trend will continue for at least a few more quarters. Both stocks are promising long-term plays on the growing AI market, but UiPath's stabilizing growth and lower valuation should enable it to stay ahead of Snowflake for the foreseeable future.
John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Leo Sun has positions in Amazon.com. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon.com, Microsoft, Snowflake, and UiPath. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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I don’t like to criticize anyone for doing the right thing.
And what follows isn’t criticism, really, just an observation about the agonizing position in which the president and his administration suddenly find themselves. Joe Biden has behaved admirably in supporting Israel and Ukraine against two distinct flavors of fascist irredentism. It’s just hard to see how it ends well for him politically.
I hope you enjoyed your break from Eeyore yesterday because today he’s back and gloomier than ever.
On Thursday night, Biden addressed the nation. The immediate goal was to persuade Americans to back Israel’s war on Hamas, but the more ambitious task the president assigned himself was convincing his audience that that conflict and Ukraine’s fight with Russia are two sides of the same coin.
Both allies are combatants against … oh, let’s call it an “axis of evil” for lack of a better term.
Hamas and Putin represent different threats, but they share this in common: They both want to completely annihilate a neighboring democracy—completely annihilate it.
…
So let me share with you why making sure Israel and Ukraine succeed is vital for America’s national security. You know, history has taught us that when terrorists don’t pay a price for their terror, when dictators don’t pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos and death and more destruction. They keep going, and the cost and the threats to America and to the world keep rising.
…
American leadership is what holds the world together. American alliances are what keep us, America, safe. American values are what make us a partner that other nations want to work with. To put all that at risk if we walk away from Ukraine, if we turn our backs on Israel, it’s just not worth it.
Iran, another member of the axis, is supporting both enemies of democracy in this war, Biden pointed out. In the end, he uttered the word “Israel” 23 times—and the word “Ukraine” 24. Which was, er, unexpected in a speech that was supposed to be about Israel.
But not that unexpected. Under the circumstances, not linking the two conflicts would have been political malpractice.
MAGA Republicans long ago soured on supporting Ukraine against a post-liberal strongman who cloaks his authoritarianism in Christianity. As Democrats rallied behind the Ukrainian cause and the war settled into a stalemate, the wider GOP base gradually moved toward the populist position. A Quinnipiac poll published a few days ago found 61 percent of Republicans now believe the U.S. is doing too much to help Ukraine, which means the next round of funding for Zelensky’s forces in the Republican-controlled House (I use the word “controlled” loosely) will be rough sledding.
The obvious solution for the White House, then: Link funding for Ukraine to funding for Israel, an ally whom most Republicans support staunchly (if perhaps temporarily). The White House’s proposed $106 billion aid package for both countries is effectively a poison pill, forcing MAGA Republicans to choose between blocking aid to Israel for the sake of blocking aid to Ukraine or to grit their teeth and swallow both at the same time.
It makes strategic sense. The people whom you would expect to be upset about it were upset about it. Just tell me this: How likely is it that the political outcome for Biden in all this will be a good one?
I’ll accept “who cares?” as an answer—it’s usually the right one when discussing a politician’s fate—but we’re all going to care next November. A lot.
Going all-in on supporting Israel and tying that support to Ukraine will exacerbate two problems that have dogged Biden. One is unrest among progressives over the pace of “progress” under his administration. The other is the persistent sense of abnormalcy during a presidency that was supposed to restore normalcy to America.
Whatever you thought you were getting when you voted Democratic in 2020, a Bush-ian call to arms against Axis of Evil 2.0 probably wasn’t it.
An Oval Office address allying the president with Israel in the eyes of the world seems at first blush like a clever way to split the Republican Party. The American right has traditionally viewed Israel as a bulwark of Judeo-Christian values against a barbaric enemy and itself as a bulwark of support for Israel against left-wing apologists for barbarism in the United States. Having the head of the Democratic Party position himself as Israel’s champion will scramble that paradigm and confound some Republican populists prone to believing that everything Democrats support is evil and wrong.
In fact, a grand rethink might have already begun.
Those are (relatively) savory examples. There are less savory ones.
It’s good for Biden when right-wingers are at each other’s throats, and they will be at each other’s throats as Israel’s war plays out. Just not, perhaps, as much as left-wingers will be.
There was news yesterday that a “mutiny” is brewing inside the State Department among employees who are unhappy with the administration’s support for Israel. One staffer has already resigned, and claims to have received encouragement from many colleagues who feel the way he does. Reportedly a “dissent cable” is being drafted to formally notify Antony Blinken and the department’s leadership how unhappy the dissenters are.
Earlier the same day, a group of more than 400 congressional staffers released a letter calling on Congress to support a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas before the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) ground campaign begins. Granted, that isn’t a huge percentage of all Hill staffers, but the point isn’t to imply that these voices represent the majority of Democratic opinion—they don’t.
The point is that these voices exist; they’re a political problem for Biden and his party; and they’re likely to grow larger and louder once urban combat in Gaza commences.
Justice Democrats is a well-known progressive outfit dedicated to electing leftists in the “Squad” mold. I invite you to scroll through their feed on The Platform Formerly Known as Twitter to see how they’ve been reacting to the new conflict in the Middle East. A taste:
That’s a sign of things to come. Because realistically, there’s no outcome to Israel’s offensive against Hamas that the left-wing base will regard as acceptable, if by “acceptable” we mean justifying the conflict retroactively.
Even a ground incursion that led, miraculously, to the IDF liquidating Hamas’ leadership with few civilian casualties would be disdained by progressives as a case of the “colonizer” having imposed its will through violence. The far more likely (probably inevitable) scenario is that the battle is a bloody mess, innocent Palestinians caught in the middle do most of the bleeding, and Israel fails to eliminate Hamas entirely. Left-wing outrage will grow day by day. The perception that Israel’s operation achieved nothing meaningful at great human cost will become leftist orthodoxy.
And those leftists will blame Joe Biden, a president for whom they feel no special affection, for having taken moral ownership of the conflict preemptively and enthusiastically.
Worse, because the president has now linked Israel’s cause to Ukraine’s, progressive disillusionment about the former may start to weaken Democratic support for the latter. Exasperation at the IDF’s campaign in Gaza may remind the left of its anti-war glory days, a position from which it’s drifted over the past decade as the right has pivoted toward isolationism under Trump. Mainstream liberals will never follow the anti-anti-Putin lead of the populist right, but it’s easy to imagine a drift back toward anti-interventionism that accelerates their restlessness with the pace of Ukraine’s effort.
By next summer, the president could find himself under pressure to bring both conflicts he sponsored to unsatisfying ends, before either Ukraine or Israel has achieved its goals. The only thing worse than defying your base by condoning war is to come back with little to show for it.
Joe Biden can’t afford to lose any more support before Election Day, especially with prominent left-wing alternatives like Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the race. The odds are very good that his position on the new Axis of Evil will end up costing him some.
But not just on the left.
Political nerds gasped collectively on Thursday when CBS News dropped these new numbers:
The same poll showed higher support for sending humanitarian aid to Gaza than for sending weapons to Israel, leaving even the pros flummoxed and struggling to make sense of it. A Quinnipiac poll published a few days ago found healthy American support for sending weapons and military equipment to the Israelis at 64-28. Democrats favored the idea by a margin of 30 points, Republicans by double that number.
The polls seem irreconcilable. Maybe the CBS News data is the outlier. But it wouldn’t shock me if it wasn’t.
That’s not because the public is turning against Israel, the best efforts of Rashida Tlaib and other hospital-bombing truthers notwithstanding. If voters are leery of American involvement in this matter, I suspect it’s because they fear that domestic and now foreign affairs under Biden’s leadership have spun entirely out of control. Their impulse, perhaps, is to pull back before something cataclysmic happens.
There are people in the government who share their anxiety, allegedly.
Impressive monthly jobs reports have obscured how much voters still chafe at the state of the economy. Inflation remains too high even according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and public disgruntlement about it has begun to produce genuinely frightening polling for Biden 2024. When Gallup asked recently which party would do better in handling the economy, the GOP came away with its biggest lead in more than 30 years. A new Morning Consult survey of seven battleground states saw Trump ahead of Biden by four points overall and by 12 points on questions about which candidate could be trusted to handle the cost of everyday goods and services. There are even numbers circulating that show Republicans erasing their traditional deficit with Democrats when voters are asked which party cares more about “people like me.”
Inflation is, quite literally, beyond the White House’s control and has remained that way for two years. That’s not what people who voted for normalcy in 2020 were counting on. Go figure that the president’s plan to run on “Bidenomics” hasn’t done a thing for his job approval so far.
Then, on Thursday night, Americans turned on their televisions to find the “normalcy” candidate asking them to get pumped about bankrolling a two-front proxy war against Russia and Iran that might plausibly spiral into a wider conflict involving American troops. Asking taxpayers to send billions to one foreign military after we’ve sent many billions more to another was destined to be a hard sell at a moment when daily necessities are more expensive than they’ve been in years. But linking the two conflicts conceptually, as Biden did, also implicitly confirmed that the risk of a wider war is real. To the casual voter, the White House appears to have lost control of international affairs now too.
Which might explain the reluctance to arm Israel in the CBS News poll, assuming it’s accurate. The less confidence the electorate has in Biden, the less inclined it’ll (logically) be to entangle itself in dangerous conflicts abroad. Ironically, the president has been keen to warn Israelis lately not to let their righteous rage at Hamas’ atrocities lead them to make strategic miscalculations like the U.S. did after 9/11. American voters may feel the same way about Old Man Biden himself: His burst of moral solidarity with Israel is welcome, but they doubt his judgment in a crisis.
If that’s so, then his pivot from “Bidenomics” to war president as a campaign theme won’t work out as well for him as he might hope. He’s most likely going to be running against a strongman, and a strongman is never more appealing than in moments of chaos. Whatever Trump’s faults, his supporters will insist, he’ll at least restore order.
For some voters, in other words, the “normalcy candidate” on the ballot in 2024 might be … Donald Trump. Sure, he might try a coup every now and then, but with him in charge at least wars won’t be breaking out all over the world and food won’t cost 30 percent more than it used to. Or so Americans who lived through four years of his leadership without any major wars or inflation might tell themselves.
There were warm words for President Biden following Thursday night’s speech on, of all places, Fox News. “I think it may be remembered as one of the best—if not the best—speeches of his presidency,” Brit Hume gushed. “On two important counts, I think he did remarkably well and was quite strong, quite firm.”
That’s nice. Thirty years ago, when America still had a huge faction of swing voters, it might even have been significant. Show of hands, though: In the America of 2023, how many Fox News viewers will not only supply Biden credit for his position on Israel, but will resolve to vote for him over Trump because of it?
Of those Republicans who might consider voting for him, how many will end up talking themselves out of it on grounds that Trump did a lot for Israel too (which he did, per the Abraham Accords)? Or that Biden is actually part of the problem here because he sought rapprochement with Iran, or because his latest efforts on Israel’s behalf somehow weren’t robust enough? Or that, even if Biden is preferable to Trump on Israel, he’s too much of a disaster on other matters like securing the southern border to ever consider supporting him over the proto-fascist favored by the GOP?
There’s no constituency for taking on Axis of Evil 2.0 except among centrists, and most of the center-right won’t vote for him, period. Of those who will, I suspect most were already committed to him on pure “anyone but Trump” grounds.
The cohorts that are most likely to switch their votes based on the president’s response to Hamas’ rampage, it seems to me, are pro-Palestinian leftists who’ll treat it as the last bit of encouragement they needed to vote third-party and normie voters who fear that an 81-year-old president is no longer on top of events here or abroad.
We may not need to wait until Election Day next fall for evidence. Rep. Dean Phillips is reportedly angling to enter the Democratic presidential primary and supply the president some token opposition; he’s no radical, but if there’s a groundswell of leftist discontent with Biden’s foreign policy, he’ll be the logical repository for a protest vote in states like New Hampshire. A surprisingly weak showing by Biden would imperil his candidacy and make a Trump restoration that much more likely.
Biden’s done the right thing on Israel, yet it’s probably still a vote-loser for him on balance. And although he had sound reasons for linking Israel’s cause to Ukraine’s, we should worry that the left-wing base’s disdain for the former and the right-wing base’s disdain for the latter will lead each side toward contempt for the entire project conceptually, ultimately undermining support for both allies.
I warned you that Eeyore would be back today.
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Five candidates have qualified for the third Republican presidential debate in Miami on Nov. 8, as the field begins to shrink.
Former President Donald J. Trump, the clear front-runner in polling and fund-raising, did not participate in the first two debates, and he will not be taking part in the third.
Who will be at the third debate?
Candidate | Qualified for third debate | Was at second debate | Was at first debate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald J. Trump Former president | No | No | No |
| Ron DeSantis Governor of Florida | |||
| Nikki Haley Former governor of South Carolina | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy Entrepreneur | |||
| Chris Christie Former governor of New Jersey | |||
| Tim Scott Senator from South Carolina | |||
| Doug Burgum Governor of North Dakota | No | ||
| Asa Hutchinson Former governor of Arkansas | No | No | |
| Ryan Binkley Businessman and pastor | No | No | No |
| Mike Pence Former vice president | |||
| Larry Elder Conservative talk radio host | No | No | |
| Perry Johnson Businessman | Dropped out | No | No |
| Will Hurd Former congressman from Texas | No | No | |
| Francis Suarez Mayor of Miami | No |
To participate, each candidate needed to satisfy fund-raising and polling criteria set by the Republican National Committee. Financially, they each needed at least 70,000 campaign donors, including at least 200 donors from 20 states or territories. And they needed support from at least 4 percent of Republican voters in two national polls, or in one national poll and two polls from a short list of early primary states. These polls have to meet R.N.C. standards, but the committee has generally declined to confirm which surveys count.
The requirements for the debates have gotten progressively stricter, as the R.N.C. has sought to narrow the field of candidates who make it to the stage. Eight candidates qualified for the first debate, and seven qualified for the second.
Former Vice President Mike Pence ended his presidential bid on Oct. 28 amid signs that he would not qualify for the third debate, and Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota was ultimately unable to reach the required polling threshold.
Candidates had until Monday night to meet the fund-raising and polling requirements. Those who did, as part of their debate qualification, also had to sign a pledge to follow several R.N.C. guidelines, including making a promise to support the eventual Republican nominee. Many candidates signed this pledge before participating in the first debate. Mr. Trump has refused to sign.
Where candidates stand on each requirement for the third debate
Met goal according to the R.N.C. or a New York Times analysis | |
Met financial goal according to the campaign | |
Qualified |
Candidate | Money goal met | Polling goal met | Signed pledge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald J. Trump Former president | No | ||
| Ron DeSantis Governor of Florida | |||
| Nikki Haley Former governor of South Carolina | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy Entrepreneur | |||
| Chris Christie Former governor of New Jersey | |||
| Tim Scott Senator from South Carolina | |||
| Doug Burgum Governor of North Dakota | No | ||
| Asa Hutchinson Former governor of Arkansas | No | No | |
| Ryan Binkley Businessman and pastor | No | No | No |
| Mike Pence Former vice president | |||
| Larry Elder Conservative talk radio host | |||
| Perry Johnson Businessman | Dropped out | ||
| Will Hurd Former congressman from Texas | |||
| Francis Suarez Mayor of Miami | |||
Methodology
Prior to the R.N.C.’s announcement of the official lineup for the third debate, The New York Times reached out to campaigns directly to determine whether candidates had met the donor requirements for debate qualification, because the latest financial disclosures, filed on Oct. 15, offer an incomplete view of candidates’ finances. More complete financial reports will not be publicly available until after the debate. Mr. Trump is the only candidate whose filings showed he had surpassed the donor requirements to attend the third debate.
To determine whether candidates had met the polling thresholds, The Times analyzed Republican primary polls collected by FiveThirtyEight. The R.N.C. has not shared a full list of qualifying polls, so The Times included in its analysis surveys that appear to have met the committee’s criteria.
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