The story on Splunk Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLK) isn’t an unfamiliar one.

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During the early months of the pandemic, the software stock soared to record highs on the accelerated digital transformation (not to mention stay-at-home trader euphoria). 

As normalization and Fed rate hikes then set in, the stock fell hard. The surprise departure of former CEO Doug Merritt added to the uncertainty. In the case of Splunk, a two-year freefall from $225 to $65 sunk the stock to its lowest level since 2017.

A happy ending may still be yet to come.

Last week’s third-quarter earnings report showed that the company’s data analytics offerings remain highly relevant in a faltering economy. Splunk’s December 1st high-volume gapper could turn out to be the spark that ignited a turnaround. 

What Does Splunk Do?

Splunk’s data analytics software helps customers make more informed business decisions. It provides a real-time look at IT infrastructure, operations, security, compliance and a wide range of business and website analytics. Enterprises looking to gain a competitive edge use Splunk software to get their arms around big data sets and capitalize on opportunities or resolve issues. 

Splunk’s flagship Enterprise offering is a machine data platform that can gather and index massive amounts of data on a daily basis. Users can interact with Enterprise to analyze and visualize information stored in popular data sources like Amazon S3 and Hadoop. It is a market that has no shortage of competitors, including heavyweights like IBM, Intel and Microsoft.

Despite the competition, Splunk has managed to amass a growing set of clients. More than 90 of the Fortune 100 companies have deployed Splunk software. Overseas, the company’s international success stories include Carrefour, Puma and Heineken.

Why Did Splunk Stock Go Up?

After the market close on November 30th, Splunk reported third-quarter revenue and earnings that crushed Wall Street expectations. Top line growth was 40% and adjusted earnings of $0.83 were more than three times the consensus estimate. The results showed not only that enterprises are still investing in the Splunk platform but also that cost-cutting measures are taking hold.

This prompted management to raise its full-year outlook for revenue and profitability, giving investors more reason to bid up the stock. After recording a 21.3% adjusted operating margin in Q3, the company expects to achieve a 23% to 26% margin in the current quarter and a much higher full-year margin than previously expected. Forecasts for full-year revenue and free cash flow were also raised. Healthy revenue growth and improving margins have been a rare combination to come by in the tech sector lately.

Splunk extended the earnings rally by announcing an extended partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS) the following day. The collaboration allows joint customers to migrate cloud computing environments and securely scale modernized workloads. Splunk and AWS, who have worked together for 10 years, committed to another five years. 

Joining forces with Amazon is never a bad idea. Combined with the beat and raise quarter, Splunk jumped 18% on December 1st and managed to hold most of the gains in the next day’s down market.

What Makes Splunk Stock a Good Investment?

Where Splunk goes from here will largely hinge on the economic environment, but also the progression of emerging technologies like Internet-of-Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI). As the industrial revolution unfolds, Splunk’s ability to help businesses identify and correct production and other operational issues should also be a long-term growth driver. These two opportunities are reasons to own the stock for the next five to ten years.

As these catalysts develop, Splunk’s presence in the fast-growing data analytics software space is expected to drive growth in the intermediate term. The company’s core IT operations management platform is being complemented by network security and application performance management solutions that are creating new revenue streams.

A diversifying subscription model that generates recurring revenue is the main attraction to software stocks, and Splunk certainly fits the mold. Although overall annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth has slowed, cloud-based ARR is growing at a higher clip — a good omen for the longer-term trend as Splunk’s shift to cloud software continues.

Another shift Splunk is making is perpetual licenses to ratable licenses, a transition other software players have successfully done. Ratable licenses involve smaller upfront payments and are paid in smaller installments, but typically have a greater value over the life of the contract. This limits profitability in the short run but, like the shift to cloud offerings, should lead to stronger long-term earnings.

Splunk’s $20 surge since October makes it a less attractive takeover candidate as many have speculated it could be. But the better reason to like the stock is the demand for real-time business decision solutions tied to industrial automation and other disruptive technologies. The other side of the business model transformation should come with spunkier growth and profits.

Within the last quarter, Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) has observed the following analyst ratings:

These 15 analysts have an average price target of $104.93 versus the current price of Splunk at $86.75, implying upside.

Below is a summary of how these 15 analysts rated Splunk over the past 3 months. The greater the number of bullish ratings, the more positive analysts are on the stock and the greater the number of bearish ratings, the more negative analysts are on the stock

This current average has decreased by 11.2% from the previous average price target of $118.17.

Stay up to date on Splunk analyst ratings.

Ratings come from analysts, or specialists within banking and financial systems that report for specific stocks or defined sectors (typically once per quarter for each stock). Analysts usually derive their information from company conference calls and meetings, financial statements, and conversations with important insiders to reach their decisions.

Some analysts will also offer forecasts for metrics like growth estimates, earnings, and revenue to provide further guidance on stocks. Investors who use analyst ratings should note that this specialized advice comes from humans and may be subject to error.

This article was generated by Benzinga's automated content engine and reviewed by an editor.

Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) is a leader in IT Oberservability for hybrid cloud environments. The company is poised to benefit from secular growth trends across Big Data, Hybrid Cloud, Cybersecurity and more. The Big Data industry alone was valued at $163 billion in 2021 and is forecasted to grow at a rapid 11% compounded annual growth rate to $273.3 billion by 2026. With many connected devices and "exabytes" of data being produced, analyzing it all is necessary and that's where Splunk's platform helps. The company produced strong financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2023, as it beat both revenue and earnings growth estimates. In this post I'm going to break down these financial results in granular detail, let's dive in.

Strong Third Quarter Financials

Splunk reported strong financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2023. Revenue was $930 million which increased by a rapid 40% year over year and beat analyst expectations by $83 million.

This revenue growth was driven by strong term license demand from existing customers, which resulted in account expansion to Splunk's larger platform, which I will discuss next.

Cybersecurity Expansion

Splunk is a Gartner Magic Quadrant leader in Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) category. The platform is basically used to monitor, analyze and search through data produced by IT systems. Data is often produced in silos across public cloud providers, on-premises data centers, and Internet of Things [IoT] devices. Splunk's mission is to turn this "data into doing", via two main functions "Observability" with its dashboards and "Security". Splunk was ranked number one in IDC market share rating for IT operation and analytics software. The company has also expanded the security product of the business which now includes the ability to use machine learning to track the "security posture" of cybersecurity companies and help to stop threats.

Over the past couple of years, Splunk has gradually transformed its business model from a premium "ingest base" pricing model to a workload-based, pay-as-you-use model. In the legacy model, all data was charged at the same rate, and thus even low-value data can cost a business customer lots of money. However, in a workload-based model, the pricing is tailored to specific use cases. I believe this is a positive change as tailored consumption-based models are popular with customers and rapidly growing technology providers such as Amazon (AMZN) Web Services [AWS]. In related news, Splunk has also announced a five-year extension of its collaboration agreement with the world's largest cloud infrastructure provider AWS.

Financials Continued

Back to the Financials, Splunk reported Cloud Annual Recurring Revenue [ARR] of $3.5 billion at a rapid 69% compounded annual growth rate. Splunk has positioned itself as a key partner for companies such as the Nasdaq which are transforming to the cloud. The beauty of Splunk's platform is it secures companies that operate with a hybrid cloud model extremely well. This is great news given one study indicates that 96% of enterprises are pursuing a hybrid cloud model for digital transformation.

The company has also continued to grow "upmarket" as it increased its Customers with ARR over $1 million by 19% YoY to 754. A notable win was a 3-year multimillion-dollar contract with a department of the U.S federal government, related to national defense. Splunk's Annual Government Summit each year in Washington D.C as the business focuses on drumming up new government customers.

In the third quarter, Splunk also signed a multimillion-dollar renewal and expansion agreement with a major telecommunications company based in Japan. In addition, the company expanded its account with a top Fortune 100 retailer.

Splunk has a super high dollar-based net retention rate of 127% which means its customers are finding the platform "sticky" and spending more.

The company also reported solid free cash flow of $287 million in the trailing 12 months, up substantially from the negative $57 million reported in the prior year.

This free cash flow was driven by strong revenue growth and expense reductions. In Q3, FY23 Splunk reported a super high Gross margin of 82% which has increased from 76.6% in the prior year. This was driven by ongoing efficiency improvements with its cloud infrastructure partners such as AWS.

The business also reported a solid Non-GAAP operating margin of 21% which has increased substantially from the negative 10% reported in the prior year. Non-GAAP EPS was $0.83 which beat analyst estimates by $0.58. So far the business has reported a $30 million sequential decrease in total Operating expenses and a year-over-year decrease of 2%. This was driven by a reduction in customer-facing travel, hiring efficiency improvements, and office space consolidation.

Splunk has a robust balance sheet with $1.757 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company does have fairly high long-term debt of ~$3 billion but just $775 million of this is short-term debt.

Advanced Valuation

In order to value Splunk I have plugged the latest financials into my advanced valuation model which uses the discounted cash flow method of valuation. I have forecasted a conservative 20% revenue growth for next year, which is slower than the prior growth rate of 40%. I am being prudent with this estimate given the macroeconomic environment and the number of account expansion wins as opposed to new customer wins in the quarter. However, in years 2 to 5, I have forecasted revenue growth to accelerate to 26% per year.

To increase the accuracy of the valuation I have capitalized R&D expenses which has lifted net income. In addition, I have forecasted growth in the operating margin to 23% over the next 9 years.

Given these factors I get a fair value of $110 per share, the stock is trading at $91 per share and thus is 17% undervalued.

As an extra data point Splunk trades at a Price to Sales ratio = 4.29 which is 51% cheaper than its 5-year average. The stock trades at a similar valuation to close competitor New Relic (NEWR), but is substantially cheaper than industry peer Datadog (DDOG).

Risks

Longer Sales Cycles/Recession

The high inflation and rising interest rate environment has caused many analysts to forecast a recession. Therefore I am expecting longer sales cycles as business decision-makers become more cautious and budgets are slashed.

Final Thoughts

Splunk is a tremendous company that has continued to produce solid financial results despite the macroeconomic headwinds. The platform is poised to benefit from the growth in the cybersecurity industry and the stock appears undervalued intrinsically.

Analysts have provided the following ratings for Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) within the last quarter:

According to 15 analyst offering 12-month price targets in the last 3 months, Splunk has an average price target of $104.93 with a high of $130.00 and a low of $86.00.

Below is a summary of how these 15 analysts rated Splunk over the past 3 months. The greater the number of bullish ratings, the more positive analysts are on the stock and the greater the number of bearish ratings, the more negative analysts are on the stock

This current average has decreased by 11.2% from the previous average price target of $118.17.

Stay up to date on Splunk analyst ratings.

Ratings come from analysts, or specialists within banking and financial systems that report for specific stocks or defined sectors (typically once per quarter for each stock). Analysts usually derive their information from company conference calls and meetings, financial statements, and conversations with important insiders to reach their decisions.

Some analysts also offer predictions for helpful metrics such as earnings, revenue, and growth estimates to provide further guidance as to what to do with certain tickers. It is important to keep in mind that while stock and sector analysts are specialists, they are also human and can only forecast their beliefs to traders.

This article was generated by Benzinga's automated content engine and reviewed by an editor.

Investment Thesis

Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) has seen its share price go nowhere fast in 5 years. And now, with a new CEO at its helm for a few months, Splunk is rapidly gaining traction on its profitability profile.

By my estimates, Splunk is priced at 26x free cash flow. But the problem, I believe, is that Splunk's cloud story is struggling for traction.

What's Happening Right Now?

Gary Steele has been Splunk's CEO for several months now. By this time, we would expect to see some progress in Splunk. What investors want to see from Splunk is a tangible narrative about customers' readily adopting its cloud business.

What you see above, is cloud bookings were the lowest now in all quarters in fiscal 2023. That's not commensurate with a narrative that investors want to see.

Revenue Growth Rates Revised Upwards a Nudge

As you can see here, Splunk's guidance for Q4 should leave investors a little skeptical. Is this or isn't this a high-growth company? Because despite a small upwards revision in Q4 revenues, growing at 19% y/y isn't so attractive.

To contextualize my comments, consider what CEO Steele said,

So as we indicated last quarter, we did see because of macro conditions, we saw some cloud migrations and expansions move out. and it was very consistent through Q4 where we saw the same behavior on buying. We did not see, however, we didn't see any less loyalty to renewal. Our renewal rate stayed incredibly high. And so I think what's happening is customers definitely see the value of cloud.

They know they're going there, but they will pace their migration. And they will pace their migration when they are ready to make that move.

Investors truly want to see resilient cloud migration being the central part of Splunk's story.

Profitability Profile Continues to be Revised Upwards

Back in Q4 2022, Splunk guided to finish fiscal 2023 with about 2% non-GAAP operating margins. Then, in Q1, Splunk upwards revised its full-year fiscal 2023 non-GAAP operating margins to reach roughly 2%, thereby indicating marginally better was possible.

Then, halfway through the fiscal year, Splunk further upwards revised its non-GAAP operating margin to 8%. The first serious sign of the new CEO Steele putting down his mark on the company.

And now, Splunk has upwards revised its non-GAAP operating margin to as high as 13%.

With that in mind, let's discuss its valuation.

SPLK Stock Valuation -- 26x Free Cash Flow

In the graphic that follows is Splunk's free cash flow guidance, having been upwards revised from $400 million to +$420 million in fiscal 2023.

If we think that before Splunk transitioned its business model away from its lucrative but ultimately shrinking on-premise-focused sales model for its security and observability products to a cloud-based approach, Splunk was printing just under $275 million of free cash flow.

Accordingly, this newly updated target of $420 million in free cash flow is truly very attractive and provides peace of mind to really long-term investors in the name.

But will this be enough to entice new shareholders into this company? At 33x this year's free cash flow, the stock doesn't seem expensive.

What's more, if we believe that looking out to next fiscal year, this free cash flow could increase to approximately $500 million, this puts Splunk priced at 26x free cash flow.

The Bottom Line

Splunk has been a problem child for a while. In fact, the stock went nowhere fast for years as investors didn't buy into the previous CEO's vision.

Now, I'm inclined to believe that investors will reconsider Splunk. Particularly as the company continues to provide investors with steady and consistent doses of positive news.

What's more, of the many cloud companies I follow, I can't name too many that are not only reporting strong free cash flows but companies whose free cash flows are substantially increasing too, as quickly as Splunk's.

© 2022 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

During down markets, investors tend to transition from a capital appreciation mindset to capital preservation mode. Like most bear markets, 2022 has followed that playbook which can be illustrated by the mass exodus from aggressive growth-oriented stocks toward lower-octane, large-cap value stocks. For example, at the time of this writing, a traditional value stock like Coca-Cola KO is merely off its all-time high by 5%. Meanwhile,like most high-valuation industry groups in 2022, the Internet – Software Group has been punished over the past year. Year-to-date, the Internet Software Industry Group is lower by nearly 60% - racking up losses equating to more than four times that of the S&P 500 Index. As investors look ahead to 2023, they should ask themselves: “Is the Internet – Software Group a victim to general market circumstances, or is the poor price action representative of group-specific problems?”

Splunk Earnings: A Turning Point for Software?

Thursday’s action in the Software Group seemed to point to the former. Several stocks saw strong price and volume action after reporting surprisingly profitable earnings, led by Splunk.

Splunk SPLK develops software that enables organizations to gain insights into their business by accessing, managing, and analyzing data in real-time. Late Wednesday, the beaten-down software firm reported quarterly earnings of $0.83 per share, handily beating Zack’s Consensus Estimates of $0.23 per share by 97% when adjusted for non-recurring items. Top-line numbers also surprised, beating Zacks Consensus Estimates by 9.91%. Splunk’s revenues came in strong at $929.77 million, a healthy increase of 40% year-over-year. Thursday, investors rewarded the growth accordingly, sending shares higher by nearly 18% on volume turnover, equating to nearly three times the norm.

Beyond the robust earnings reported for the current quarter, management provided a rosy outlook. Despite the current macroeconomic headwinds, the company upped its guidance for 2023. Previously, total revenues for the full year 2023 were expected to be between $3.35 billion and $3.4 billion; however, now the company is anticipating total revenue to be between $3.455 billion and $3.485 billion. Though top-line numbers impressed, perhaps the most significant surprise came from efficiency and cost savings expectations. Non-GAAP operating margins are expected to grow to 12% from 8%. Splunk President and CEO Gary Steele said, “In addition to our strong top-line results, we also made good progress on our expense reduction during the quarter. As a result, we are increasing our full-year outlook for total revenues, profitability, and free cash flow.”

Story continues

Box Punches its way to a Profit

Box Inc BOX is a software platform that allows companies to manage internal and external data, content and store files in the cloud. Since the Covid Crash, Box has been an elite performer, rallying from a spike low of $8.64 to over $29 presently. While most tech stocks bottomed in October with the Nasdaq, Box saw its lows back in July and never looked back – a subtle sign of strength. Like Splunk, the outperformance can be traced to the company’s ability to produce a profit in a shaky macroeconomic climate. In fact, in some ways, the turbulent economic times may be working in the company’s favor. In the Q3 conference call, CEO and co-founder Aaron Levie stated that “As companies prioritize strategic IT initiatives that allow them to efficiently lower IT expenses, the Box Content Cloud enables enterprises to streamline their businesses, drive up productivity, reduce risk, and lower costs. With our industry-leading platform, Box is very well-positioned to execute through these dynamic times. As we continue to build an enduring business for the long run, we remain hyper-focused on driving growth and even greater profitability.”

Box’s third-quarter numbers back up the CEO’s point. Earnings for the quarter came in at $0.31 per share, marking a 40.9% jump on a fiscal basis and surpassing Zacks Consensus Estimates by 3.3%. While total revenues missed consensus estimates by a hair, the company grew its top line by 11.6% year over year. Customer acquisition and retention also drove results. Thursday, shares leaped 6.45% on double the average trading volume. After years of price consolidation, Box is now attempting to break out over its IPO price high. Box has registered double-digit revenue growth for seven straight quarters and double-digit EPS growth for three quarters in a row. The consistent growth, high expectations for the future, and relative price strength make Box a top option for investors looking to gain exposure to the Internet – Software Group.

Asana Punished as Losses Widen

Asana Inc ASAN is another member of the Zacks Internet – Software Group. The company provides a software platform that enables management teams to coordinate projects and employee tasks. Since last year, shares have seen quite the fall from grace, cratering from a high of over $145 to under $20 presently. After the close Thursday, Asana reported Q4 loss of $0.26 versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.32. Revenues jumped to $141.44 million from $100.34 million last year, coming in line with Zacks Consensus Estimates. Despite the revenue growth, investors punished the stock by 14% on Friday morning. Asana has yet to turn a profit as a public company.

Profitability is Paramount

In 2011 Silicon Valley legend Marc Andreesen correctly predicted that “Software is eating the world.” Since then the market has rewarded software investors with a plethora of multi-bag moves in the space. With that said, the software space has matured, and the macroeconomic climate has worsened. The recent batch of Internet – Software earnings has sent a clear message to prospective software investors: now is not the time to be throwing darts. The market is rewarding profitability and bottom-line growth. Prospective investors should be gravitating toward quality software names such as Splunk and Box that are able to turn the “profit spigot” on while avoiding riskier, unprofitable names such as Asana. The Zacks Internet – Software Group is  currently ranked in the top 22% of industries.

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Security and observability leader releases a public preview of Splunk Add-on for Amazon Security Lake; Awarded 2022 Regional and Global AWS Partner Award

SAN FRANCISCO & LAS VEGAS, December 01, 2022--(BUSINESS WIRE)--AWS re:Invent 2022 – Splunk Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLK), the data platform leader for security and observability, today announced a five-year extension of its Strategic Collaboration Agreement (SCA) with Amazon Web Services, Inc. (AWS). During this week’s AWS re:Invent 2022, Splunk was also named the ISV Partner of the Year in North America at the 2022 Regional and Global AWS Partner Awards and revealed a public preview of the Splunk Add-on for Amazon Security Lake.

"Together with AWS, Splunk is committed to enabling joint customers to innovate with confidence, migrate and modernize existing environments, and safely scale without limits," said Gretchen O’Hara, vice president, Worldwide Partners and Alliances, Splunk. "For 10 years we have been better together, and we look forward to helping organizations worldwide solve their most significant business data challenges. This work would not have been possible without the long-standing strategic collaboration between our organizations. We are honored to be recognized as the ISV Partner of the Year in North America winner as well."

Announced during a Partner Awards Gala at AWS re:Invent 2022, the Regional and Global AWS Partner Awards recognize a wide range of AWS Partners, whose business models have embraced specialization, innovation, and cooperation over the past year. The Regional and Global AWS Partner Awards recognize AWS Partners whose business models continue to evolve and thrive on AWS as they work with customers. This regional award spotlights Splunk’s dedication and commitment to customer obsession.

"The strength of our collaboration with Splunk is amplified by our commitment to co-innovation and exceptional, data-driven outcomes for our joint customers," said Ruba Borno, vice president, Worldwide Channels and Alliances at AWS. "The focus of our collaboration is fueled by supporting our customers’ cloud migration journey, sustainability initiatives and strategies that expedite digital transformation and drive success."

Story continues

Splunk Announces Amazon Security Lake Support

Splunk has released a public preview of the Splunk Add-on for Amazon Security Lake to the Splunkbase content marketplace. Announced at AWS re:Invent 2022 earlier this week, Amazon Security Lake allows customers to build a security data lake from integrated cloud and on-premises data sources as well as from their private applications. With support for the Open Cybersecurity Schema Framework (OCSF) open standard, Amazon Security Lake helps reduce the complexity and costs for customers to make their security solutions data accessible to address a variety of security use cases such as threat detection, investigation, and incident response. With Splunk Add-on for Amazon Security Lake, customers can use Splunk to easily ingest the OCSF-compliant data in Amazon Security Lake data to address security use cases, enabling security teams to more easily use this data to Excellerate threat detection, investigation and response. Splunk is an early supporter of Amazon Security Lake and a leading contributor to the community implementing the OCSF open standard that benefits the broader cybersecurity community.

Joint Splunk and AWS customers can benefit significantly from this support as it delivers benefits of OCSF, namely the simplification of sharing and analyzing disparate security data by eliminating the step of normalizing the data first. By storing data in OCSF-compliant format, Amazon Security Lake helps simplify the work customers must perform to ingest and analyze security data with Splunk by being a single feed of security data to manage versus customers needing to manage multiple services coming from AWS or other security solutions.

For more information on Splunk and AWS, visit the Splunk website or visit AWS Marketplace. AWS re:Invent attendees can also visit Splunk’s AWS re:Invent 2022 page and visit the Splunk booth #3516.

Safe Harbor Statement

This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to statements regarding Splunk’s strategic collaboration with AWS and any anticipated benefits, capabilities, results and future opportunities that the strategic collaboration can bring to us and our customers; and statements regarding our products, technology and ongoing product development. There are a significant number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from statements made in this press release. Additional information on potential factors that could affect Splunk’s financial and other results and the forward-looking statements in this press release is included in the company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended July 31, 2022, which is on file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and Splunk’s other filings with the SEC. Splunk does not assume any obligation to update the forward-looking statements provided to reflect events that occur or circumstances that exist after the date on which they were made.

About Splunk Inc.

Splunk Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLK) helps organizations around the world turn data into doing. Splunk technology is designed to investigate, monitor, analyze and act on data at any scale.

Splunk, Splunk>, Data-to-Everything and Turn Data Into Doing are trademarks and registered trademarks of Splunk Inc. in the United States and other countries. All other brand names, product names, or trademarks belong to their respective owners. © 2022 Splunk Inc. All rights reserved.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221201005393/en/

Contacts

Media Contact
Gabrielle Jasinski
Splunk Inc.
press@splunk.com

Investor Contact
Ken Tinsley
Splunk Inc.
ir@splunk.com