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Exam Code: PMI-002 Practice test 2022 by Killexams.com team
PMI-002 Certified Associate in Project Management (CAPM)

Introduction to Project Management (6%)
Understand the five project management process groups and the processes within each group
Recognize the relationships among project, program, portfolio, and operational management
Define a typical project lifecycle
Understand the function and importance of tailoring for different projects

Project Environment (6%)
Identify the factors and assets that may impact the outcome of a project
Distinguish between organizational systems
Understand the purpose and activities of a Project Management Office
Recognize the hierarchy of projects, programs and portfolios

Role of the Project Manager (7%)
State the primary functions of a project manager
Understand a project managers sphere of influence
Identify the major elements included in the PMI triangle
Recognize the difference between leadership and management

Project Integration Management (9%)
Understand the seven project management processes in the project integration management knowledge area
Identify the input, tools, techniques and outputs defined in the seven processes in project integration management
Understand the purpose of project integration management and the project managers role within it
Identify concepts and procedures related to project change management
Identify tailoring consideration in project integration management and recognize key documents
Identify methods for project integration and knowledge management

Project Scope Management (9%)
Understand the six project management processes in the project scope management knowledge area
Identify the Input, tools, techniques and outputs defined in the six processes in project scope management
Identify key concepts and tailoring consideration for project scope management, and key roles in scope management
Identify the purpose and elements of a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) for both Product and Project scope
Understand project scope management for agile/adaptive projects, including the use of prototypes

Project Schedule Management (9%)
Define the six project management processes in the project schedule management knowledge area
Identify the Input, tools, techniques and outputs defined in the six processes in project schedule management
Solve simple network diagrams problems and perform basic scheduling calculations
Identify considerations for agile/adaptive environments in project schedule management

Project Cost Management (8%)
Understand the four project management processes in the project cost management knowledge area
Identify the Input, tools, techniques and outputs defined in the four processes in project cost management
Identify key concepts in project cost management, including tailoring and special considerations for agile/adaptive environments
Understand and apply basic forecasting and earned value methods for project cost management

Project Quality Management (7%)
Understand the three project management processes in the project quality management knowledge area
Identify the Input, tools, techniques and outputs defined in the three quality management processes
Understand the reasons for and approaches to adapting quality management in different project environments
Identify quality tools and approaches for continuous improvement

Project Resource Management (8%)
Define the six project management processes in the project resource management knowledge area
Identify the Input, tools, techniques and outputs defined in the six processes in project resource management
Identify key concepts and trends in project resource management, including tailoring and special considerations for agile/adaptive environments
Identify techniques for developing a team, managing conflict, and resolving resource-related problems
Understand the components of a resource management plan and data representation techniques for managing project resources

Project Communication Management (10%)
Understand the three project management processes in the project communication management knowledge area
Identify the Input, tools, techniques and outputs defined in the three project communication management processes
Identify key concepts and approaches in project communication management, including tailoring and special considerations for agile/adaptive environments
Recognize the dimensions of communication and components of a communications management plan
Identify communications skills and methods for project communication management

Project Risk Management (8%)
Understand the seven project management processes in the project risk management knowledge area
Identify the Input, tools, techniques and outputs defined in project risk management
Identify the key documents in project risk management
Perform simple risk calculations
Recognize when and how to adjust risk based on the project environment

Project Procurement Management (4%)
Understand the three processes in the project procurement management knowledge area
Identify the Input, tools, techniques and outputs defined in the three project procurement processes
Identify key concepts and tailoring considerations for project procurement management, including trends and emerging practices
Identify various types of contracts, agreements, and source selection methods

Project Stakeholder Management (9%)
Understand the four project management processes in the project stakeholder management knowledge area
Identify the Input, tools, techniques and outputs defined in the four project stakeholder management processes
Recognize key stakeholders roles and needs
Identify the key concepts and benefits of stakeholder management

Certified Associate in Project Management (CAPM)
PMI Management guide
Killexams : PMI Management guide - BingNews https://killexams.com/pass4sure/exam-detail/PMI-002 Search results Killexams : PMI Management guide - BingNews https://killexams.com/pass4sure/exam-detail/PMI-002 https://killexams.com/exam_list/PMI Killexams : Project management: Tips, tools, best practices

What is project management?

Project management is a business discipline that involves applying specific processes, knowledge, skills, techniques, and tools to successfully deliver outcomes that meet project goals. Project management professionals drive, guide, and execute company-identified value-added goals by applying processes and methodologies to plan, initiate, execute, monitor, and close all activities related to a given business project in alignment with the organization’s overall strategic objectives.

Project management steps

Project management is broken down into five phases or life cycle. Each phase intersects with any of 10 knowledge areas, which include: integration, scope, time, cost, quality, human resources, communication, risk procurement, and stakeholder management. The phases, processes and associated knowledge areas provide an organized approach for project managers and their teams to work through projects, according to the following outline:

Initiating phase:

  • Integration management: Develop project charter.
  • Stakeholder management: Identify stakeholders.

Planning phase:

  • Integration management: Develop project management plan.
  • Scope management: Define scope, create work breakdown structure (WBS), gather requirements.
  • Time management: Plan and develop schedules and activities, estimate resources and timelines.
  • Costs management: Estimate costs, determine budgets.
  • Quality management: Identify quality requirements.
  • Human resource management: Plan and identify human resource needs.
  • Communications management: Plan stakeholder communications.
  • Risk management: Perform qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, plan risk mitigation strategies.
  • Procurement management: Identify and plan required procurements.
  • Stakeholder management: Plan for stakeholder expectations.

Execution phase:

  • Integration management: Direct and manage all project work.
  • Quality management: Performing all aspects of managing quality.
  • Human resource management: Select, develop, and manage the project team.
  • Communications management: Manage all aspects of communications.
  • Procurement management: Secure necessary procurements.
  • Stakeholder management: Manage all stakeholder expectations.

Monitoring and controlling phase:

  • Integration management: Monitoring and control project work and manage any necessary changes.
  • Scope management: Validate and control the scope of the project.
  • Time management: Control project scope.
  • Costs management: Controlling project costs.
  • Quality management: Monitor quality of deliverables.
  • Communications management: Monitor all team and stakeholder communications.
  • Procurement management: Keep on top of any necessary procurements.
  • Stakeholder management: Take ownership of stakeholder engagements.

Closing phase:

  • Integration management: Close all phases of the project.
  • Procurement management: Close out all project procurements.

Stakeholder expectations

Stakeholders can be any person or group with a vested stake in the success of a project, program, or portfolio, including team members, functional groups, sponsors, vendors, and customers. Expectations of all stakeholders must be carefully identified, communicated, and managed. Missing this can lead to misunderstandings, conflict, and even project failure.

Here are some tips for managing stakeholder expectations.

  • Assemble a team specific to project goals, ensuring team members have the right mix of skills and knowledge to deliver.
  • Leave sufficient time in advance of a project for key individuals to delve into and discuss issues and goals before the project begins.
  • Ensure the project timeline and scheduled tasks are realistic.

Project scope

During the planning phase, all project details must be solidified, including goals, deliverables, assumptions, roles, tasks, timeline, budget, resources, quality aspects, terms, and so on. The customer and key stakeholders work together to solidify and agree on the scope before the project can begin. The scope guides the project work and any changes to the scope of the project must be presented and approved as a scope change request.

Project budgets

Budgets play a large role in whether a project progresses, or if it can be completed. Few companies have an unlimited budget, so the first thing project stakeholders look at in determining whether a project succeeded or failed is the bottom line. This fact fuels the pressure project leaders, and their teams face with each passing day. As such, effective budget management is a primary area of focus for project managers who value their careers. The following are five strategies for maintaining control of your project budget before it succumbs to whopping cost overruns:

  • Understand stakeholder’s true needs and wants
  • Budget for surprises
  • Develop relevant KPIs
  • Revisit, review, re-forecast
  • Keep everyone informed and accountable

Project management methodologies

Most projects are conducted based on a specific methodology for ensuring project outcomes based on a range of factors. As such, choosing the right project management methodology (PMM) is a vital step for success. There are many, often overlapping approaches to managing projects, the most popular of which are waterfall, agile, hybrid, critical path method, and critical chain project management, among others. Agile, which includes subvariants such as Lean and Scrum, is increasing in popularity and is being utilized in virtually every industry. Originally adopted by software developers, agile uses short development cycles called sprints to focus on continuous improvement in developing a product or service.

PMO vs. EPMO

Successful organizations codify project management efforts under an umbrella organization, either a project management office (PMO) or an enterprise project management office (EPMO).

A PMO is an internal or external group that sets direction and maintains and ensures standards, best practices, and the status of project management across an organization. PMOs traditionally do not assume a lead role in strategic goal alignment.

An EPMO has the same responsibilities as a traditional PMO, but with an additional key high-level goal: to align all project, program, and portfolio activities with an organization’s strategic objectives. Organizations are increasingly adopting the EPMO structure, whereby, project, program, and portfolio managers are involved in strategic planning sessions right from the start to increase project success rates.

PMOs and EPMOs both help organizations apply a standard approach to shepherding projects from initiation to closure. In setting standard approaches, PMOs and EPMOs offer the following benefits:

  • ground rules and expectations for the project teams
  • a common language for project managers, functional leaders, and other stakeholders that smooths communication and ensures expectations are fully understood
  • higher levels of visibility and increased accountability across an entire organization
  • increased agility when adapting to other initiatives or changes within an organization
  • the ready ability to identify the status of tasks, milestones, and deliverables
  • relevant key performance indicators for measuring project performance

Project management roles

Depending on numerous factors such as industry, the nature and scope of the project, the project team, company, or methodology, projects may need the help of schedulers, business analysts, business intelligence analysts, functional leads, and sponsors. Here is a comparison of the three key roles within the PMO or EPMO, all are in high demand due to their leadership skill sets.

Project manager: Plays the lead role in planning, executing, monitoring, controlling, and closing of individual projects. Organizations can have one or more project managers.

Program manager: Oversees and leads a group of similar or connected projects within an organization. One or more project managers will typically report to the program manager.

Portfolio manager: This role is at the highest level of a PMO or EPMO and is responsible for overseeing the strategic alignment and direction of all projects and programs. Program managers will typically report directly to the portfolio manager.

Project management certification

Successful projects require highly skilled project managers, many with formal training or project management certifications. Some may have project management professional certifications or other certifications from the PMI or another organization. Project management certifications include:

  • PMP: Project Management Professional
  • CAPM: Certified Associate in Project Management
  • PgMP: Program Management Professional
  • PfMP:Portfolio Management Professional
  • CSM: Certified Scrum Master
  • CompTIA Project+ Certification
  • PRINCE2 Foundation/PRINCE2 Practitioner
  • CPMP: Certified Project Management Practitioner
  • Associate in Project Management
  • MPM: Master Project Manager
  • PPM: Professional in Project Management

Project management software and templates increase team productivity and effectiveness and prepare the organization for changes brought about by high-impact projects. CIO.com has compiled the ultimate project management toolkit as well as some open-source project management tools to help you plan, execute, monitor, and successfully polish off your next high-impact project.

Project management software falls into multiple categories. Some tools are categorized as project management software; others are more encompassing, such as project portfolio management (PPM) software. Some are better suited for small businesses and others for larger organizations. Project managers will also often use task management, schedule management, collaboration, workflow management, and other types of tools. These are just a few examples of the project management software and tools available to help simplify project management.

Popular project management tools include:

Project management skills

Effective project managers need more than technical know-how. The role also requires several non-technical skills, and it is these softer skills that often determine whether a project manager — and the project — will be successful. Project managers must have these seven non-technical skills: leadership, motivation, communication, organization, prioritization, problem-solving, and adaptability. It’s also beneficial to have a strategic mindset, have change management and organizational development expertise, agility, and conflict resolution capabilities, among other skills.

Project management jobs and salaries

By 2027, the demand for project managers will grow to 87.7 million, according to PMI, but these hires won’t all be project manager titles. While the more generic titles are project manager, program manager, or portfolio manager, each role may differ depending on industry and specialization. There are also coordinators, schedulers, and assistant project managers, among other roles.

Project managers have historically garnered high-paying salaries upwards of six figures, depending on the role, seniority, and location. Indeed provides a searchable list for job salaries, including some annual project management salaries companies are offering for these roles: 

  • Project manager: Base salary $85,311, bonus $13,500
  • Program manager: $85,796
  • Portfolio manager: $100,742
  • Software/IT project manager: $106,568
  • Project administrator: $62,093
  • Project planner: $69,528
  • Project controller: $90,342
  • Document controller: $74,899
  • Project leader: $130,689
  • Program/project director: $101,126
  • Head of program/project: $128,827
Sun, 04 Dec 2022 11:59:00 -0600 en-US text/html https://www.cio.com/article/228109/project-management-tips-strategies-best-practices.html
Killexams : Ensuring Your Project Management Strategy Keeps Pace With Your Needs

Yaniv Shor is the founder and CEO of Proggio and the author of the book Time to Deliver, a must read for project managers. About Proggio.

Between the shift to remote work and the accelerating speed of business, project managers have their hands more than full. Juggling multiple projects and multiple teams across multiple locations, as well as relying on multiple software tools to keep everything straight, is enough to make even the most experienced PM feel overwhelmed.

Part of the problem is the fact that the tools most PMs have available haven't kept pace with the evolution and demands of modern project management. Many are still relying on static Excel spreadsheets to track project status and PowerPoint to create reports. According to the Project Management Institute (PMI), 30% of organizations only consider methods that have proved effective for them in the past. In other words, they stick with the status quo.

That's a serious problem because it directly hinders their success. PMI data shows that organizations that can adapt and evolve are nearly twice as agile, more productive and able to deliver better value—meeting their project objectives while staying on budget and with less waste. On the other hand, organizations that can't react quickly to change or are unable to forecast trends and capitalize on them are at risk of being quickly passed up by the competition.

If it's time for a PM modernization effort within your organization, here are some tips to guide the process.

1. Clarify your needs. Modern PM solutions run the gamut from providing top-level project portfolio management to complete end-to-end platforms that include granular task management. Not every organization needs a soup-to-nuts solution. Giving your PMs a powerful project portfolio management platform and allowing end users to continue with the task management tools of their choice may be just fine.

2. Identify your user base. Who is your intended audience? Are they experienced, certified PMPs or business end users with no formal project management experience? While both deserve a solution that's intuitive and easy to use for their level of experience, there's no need to overcomplicate things. Too many features can be overwhelming.

3. Develop a sound organizational structure. For some organizations, it's not just their tools that aren't working—it's their entire structure. Doing the same thing you've always done but adding a new tool won't fix the lack of communication, organization and structure. Consider restructuring business units, if needed, and identifying champions for units or departments so that each has a designated representative.

4. Establish a framework for prioritizing. Regardless of how you manage projects, each one that you undertake must have a direct tie to your overall business strategy. Before diving headfirst into every new idea, establish criteria for deciding what to work on, how new projects will be prioritized and who makes that call. Instead of doing projects for the sake of doing projects, make sure you're working on projects that actually move the needle in terms of business growth.

In order to successfully deploy any new project management strategy, you'll want to make sure you have the capability to address these four key factors that can make or break your program.

• Visibility. The problem with using Excel or even Gantt charts to track project status is that they're perpetually outdated. The entire team depends on the PM to make updates to the timeline by culling through emails, Slack messages and sticky notes. Meanwhile, work on the project is ongoing, so there's virtually no way the PM can keep up.

Look to incorporate real-time visibility to help your team plan ahead and be ready for the next task or phase. A clearer view of project statuses can also allow PMs and project leaders to spot roadblocks sooner so they can adapt quickly before falling behind schedule.

• Efficient reporting. PMs often spend hours compiling data from a myriad of sources into a PowerPoint deck to report to stakeholders. By the time this report is delivered, it's already old news. This is not only an inefficient use of PMPs' time and talent, but it also means leadership never gets a clear picture of project status. It may not find out things are going poorly until they've gone completely off the rails, putting the entire project in jeopardy.

Look to establish systems for efficient, real-time reporting in order to keep stakeholders up to date, which can save the entire organization a tremendous amount of time. Reporting is a critical part of project management, so addressing it upfront can prevent a huge hassle and headache down the road.

• Adaptability. How many times have you been sitting in a meeting, and there's a request to change priorities or objectives? Other times, things go wrong—a setback, a technical glitch or another hurdle means missing an important milestone. These events have obvious downstream effects, but in most organizations, those are hard to quantify.

Ensure you have the ability to adapt to changes. Seeing how a priority change or a roadblock will impact future milestones, project completion and deliverables across the portfolio is essential. Without it, the organization is flying blind and crossing its fingers that everything will work out in the end.

• Resource planning. Employees are already feeling overworked and stressed out, and nearly one in five project managers has considered leaving the profession largely because of burnout. No organization can afford to lose great talent right now (or ever).

Look to create an efficient resource planning process in order to not only prevent burnout but also make sure projects actually get across the finish line. By prioritizing projects around business objectives and gaining clarity into who's working on what, your organization can be much more effective at managing workloads and ensuring projects get over the finish line on time.

While it's reasonable to encounter some challenges as you modernize your project management approach, it's also important that you keep an open mind and be willing to try something new. Having a modern, adaptable project management strategy can give you the clarity and agility you need to gain and maintain a competitive advantage in a fast-moving business environment.


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Thu, 01 Dec 2022 23:16:00 -0600 Yaniv Shor en text/html https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2022/12/02/ensuring-your-project-management-strategy-keeps-pace-with-your-needs/
Killexams : Project Management Institute Celebrates Contributions to Project Management Industry with Winners of 2022 PMI® Awards

PHILADELPHIA, December 02, 2022--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Project Management Institute (PMI), the world’s leading organization for the project management profession, announced the winners of the 2022 PMI® Awards during a reimagined award ceremony, themed as ILLUMINATE!, at PMI Global Summit. The PMI® Awards highlight project professionals, PMI chapters, groups and published works that advance the project management profession.

Since 1974, PMI has honored organizations and project professionals whose passion, talent, and expertise have made the greatest contributions to project management and PMI. This year’s awards fall under three categories: PMI Project Awards, PMI Research and Academic Awards, and PMI Chapter Awards.

"As the home for project professionals across the globe, PMI celebrates the work that leads us forward–and those who make it possible," said Pierre Le Manh, President and Chief Executive Officer of Project Management Institute. "Through innovation, collaboration, and a dedication to outcomes that matter, this year’s recognized work and project leaders model the qualities that drive the world forward—directing us all towards a brighter future."

PMI® Awards:

PMI® Project of the Year Award – This award is the highest project honor and recognizes a single project leading the way in the project management profession. Projects winning this award have achieved excellence of project management practices including superior organizational results, innovation, collaboration, and making positive impacts on society.

PMI® Large and Mega Project Award –This award recognizes complex projects that best deliver superior performance of project management practices, superior organizational results, and positive impacts on society with a project budget of more than US$50 million.

  • Winner: Route 2020 Project by Dubai Metro

  • Finalist: Al Madinah Mega Project by King Faisal Specialist Hospital & Research Center

  • Finalist: Sanmen AP1000 Phase I Project by the Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research & Design Institute

PMI® Small and Mid-Size Project Award – This award recognizes complex projects that best deliver superior performance of project management practices, superior organizational results, and positive impacts on society with a project budget of less than US$50 million.

  • Winner: Medical Oxygen Plant (MOP) by Tata Advanced Systems Limited (TASL)

  • Finalist: COVID-19 300 ICU Hospital Beds by GDID Jubilee

  • Finalist: Multiplan Advocacy Platform Implementation by UST

PMO of the Year® Award – This award honors a Project Management Office (PMO) that has added value to its organization through its support of successful strategic initiatives and demonstrated superior organizational project management capabilities. It also recognizes a PMO that has established a vision for value delivery and has had a positive and clear impact on business results.

  • Winner: Dubai Municipality Project Management Office

  • Finalist: Ontario Power Generation Enterprise Project Management Office

  • Finalist: Johnson & Johnson FS&T Project Management Office

PMI® Fellow Award – This is the highest and most prestigious individual award, honoring professionals for their service to the organization and profession.

PMI® Eric Jenett Person of the Year Award – This award recognizes and honors an individual who has made an outstanding contribution(s) to the project management profession or its practice through leadership, technical project management, and strategic and business management acumen.

  • Imre Szalay

  • Shivani Gupta

PMI® Rising Leader Award – This award recognizes and honors young professionals who have made a significant impact in advancing project management within an organization; advancing the knowledge and understanding of the practice of project management; and demonstrating an understanding of PMI standards, practices, and ethics.

PMI® Research and Academic Awards

The PMI Research and Academic Awards recognize individuals, groups, and published works that significantly advanced the concepts, knowledge, and practices of project, program, and portfolio management.

PMI® David I. Cleland Project Management Literature Award – The PMI David I. Cleland Project Management Literature Award recognizes the author(s) of a published book that significantly advances project management knowledge, concepts, and practice.

PMI® Research Achievement Award – The PMI Research Achievement Award recognizes and honors an individual whose work has significantly advanced the concepts, knowledge, and practices of project management through a published body of academic research.

  • Winners:

    • Professor Nathalie Drouin, University of Quebec, Montreal

    • Professor Ralf Müller, BI Norwegian Business School

    • Professor Shankar Sankaran, University of Technology Sydney

PMI® Linn Stuckenbruck Teaching Excellence Award – The PMI Linn Stuckenbruck Teaching Excellence Award honors faculty members for excellence in teaching project management curricula in higher education.

PMI® Young Researcher Award – The PMI Young Researcher Award recognizes and celebrates emerging leaders in the academic field of project, program, and/or portfolio management with potential achievements to make a significant impact on the field and practice.

PMI® Chapter Awards

The PMI Chapter Awards program provides recognition of volunteer efforts, motivates chapter leaders, and provides acknowledgment of their contributions toward achieving goals.

Category I - Chapters with 25-300 Members

Category II - Chapters with 301–1,500 Members

Category III - Chapters with Over 1,500 Members

If you know a project, PMO, or professional in project management that deserves recognition, nominate them for next year’s PMI Awards today at https://professionalawards.pmi.org/.

About Project Management Institute (PMI)

Project Management Institute (PMI) is the leading professional organization for project management, and the authority for a growing global community of millions of project professionals and individuals who use project management skills. Collectively, these professionals and "changemakers" consistently create better outcomes for businesses, community, and society worldwide.

PMI empowers people to make ideas a reality. Through global advocacy, networking, collaboration, research, and education, PMI prepares organizations and individuals at every stage of their career journey to work smarter so they can drive success in a world of change.

Building on a proud legacy dating to 1969, PMI is a not-for-profit for-purpose organization working in nearly every country around the world to advance careers, strengthen organizational success, and enable project professionals and changemakers with new skills and ways of working to maximize their impact. PMI offerings include globally recognized standards, certifications, online courses, thought leadership, tools, digital publications, and communities.

Visit us at www.PMI.org, www.projectmanagement.com, www.facebook.com/PMInstitute and on Twitter @PMInstitute.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221202005314/en/

Contacts

MaryKate Dougherty
External Communications Specialist
MaryKate.Dougherty@pmi.org

Fri, 02 Dec 2022 02:26:00 -0600 en-US text/html https://www.yahoo.com/now/project-management-institute-celebrates-contributions-162300551.html
Killexams : How Forex Traders Use ISM Data ISM manufacturing index

The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. As a result, the ISM manufacturing, construction and services indicators can provide unique opportunities for forex traders, which makes understanding this data (and how to prepare for its monthly release) essential.

Talking points:

  • What is ISM?
  • How ISM impacts currencies
  • How forex traders use ISM data

What is ISM?

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) measures the economic activity from both the manufacturing side as well as the service side. Monthly ISM data releases include key information such as changes in production levels.

ISM was formed in 1915 and is the first management institute in the world with members in 300 countries. The data gleaned from its large membership of purchasing managers means ISM is a reliable guide to global economic activity, and as a result, currency prices. A country’s economy is often determined by its supply chain, as a result, the monthly ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI economic news releases are carefully watched by forex traders around the world.

ISM Surveys

ISM publishes three surveys - manufacturing, construction, and services – on the first business day of every month. The ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is compiled from surveys of 400 manufacturing purchasing managers. These purchasing managers from different sectors represent five different fields:

  1. Inventories
  2. Employment
  3. Speed of supplier deliveries
  4. Production level
  5. New orders from customers.

In addition, ISM construction PMI is released on the second business day of the month, followed by services on the third business day. Forex traders will look to these releases to determine the risks at any given time in the market.

How does ISM Impact currencies?

The Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMIs are big market movers. When these reports are released at 10:30am ET, currencies can become very volatile. Since these economic releases are based on the previous month’s historical data gathered directly from industry professionals, forex traders can determine if the US economy is expanding or contracting - much like non-farm payrolls (NFP) data.

Currencies react with this information as it represents a gauge of US economic health (see image below).

ISM manufacturing PMI vs GDP

Source: Institute for Supply Management

How forex traders use ISM data

Forex traders will compare the previous month’s ISM data figure with the forecasted number that economists have published. If the released PMI number is better than the previous number and higher than the forecasted number, the US dollar tends to rally. This is where fundamental and technical analysis comes together to create a trade setup.

EUR/USD drops as a result of better than expected data

ism manufacturing index

In the example above, notice how the better than expected PMI number triggered a US dollar rally against the Euro. As seen in the chart (EUR/USD – one hour), the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in higher than the previous month at 54.9.

When an economic releases beats expectation, sharp fast moves can ensue. In this case, EUR/USD dropped 150 pips in a few hours. Traders often choose the Euro as the “anti-dollar” to take advantage of capital flows between two of the largest economies.

Read more on using pips in forex trading.

The Eurozone has large liquid capital markets which can absorb the huge waves of capital seeking refuge from the US. A weak US ISM Non-Manufacturing number usually leads to a dollar sell-off and a rise in the Euro. Another scenario is when the number released is in line with forecasts and/or unchanged from the previous month, then the US dollar may not react at all to the number.

Overall, an ISM PMI number above 50 indicates that the economy is expanding and is healthy. However, a number below 50 indicates that the economy is weak and contracting. This number is so important that if the PMI is below 50 for two consecutive months, an economy is considered in recession.

PMIs are also compiled for Euro zone countries by the Markit Group while US regional and national PMIs are compiled by ISM. As you can see, traders have good reason to pay special attention to the important releases from the ISM manufacturing index.

Learn more about forex fundamentals

Thu, 01 Dec 2022 01:29:00 -0600 en text/html https://www.dailyfx.com/news/how-forex-traders-use-ism-data-20221201.html
Killexams : ZTE and PMI Malaysia Sign Strategic Cooperation Agreement on Professional Project Management Ecosystem

PRESS RELEASE: ZTE Corporation together with PMI Malaysia, has signed a strategic cooperation agreement on professional project management ecosystem in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

“ZTE has always been a strategic partner of PMI Malaysia. In the era of global digital and intelligent transformation, PMI Malaysia and ZTE will carry out more comprehensive and in-depth cooperation in multiple fields of project management, to further Boost the project management level in the communications field and jointly create excellent management and services,” said Dr. Joshua Netto, Director of Treasury of PMI Malaysia.

“ZTE is committed to providing our customers with world-class communication networks. With the development of the digital economy, we are accelerating the business expansion of the second growth curve,” noted Mr. Wang Qiming,the Deputy Country Manager of the ZTE Malaysia. “ PMI Malaysia provides us more professional consulting services in organizational operation, process mechanism, and management mode transformation. Also, we hope that both parties will have deeper cooperation in the digital evolution of project cluster management and AI application. ”

“The signing of this strategic agreement opens a new chapter for the in-depth cooperation between ZTE and PMI Malaysia in the project management field. In the future, both parties will work closely to build a professional project management ecosystem and achieve win-win in the digital and intelligent era,”,added Mr. Nehru Nagappan, the Director of Public Relation at PMI Malaysia.

Back
Tue, 29 Nov 2022 22:56:00 -0600 en-GB text/html https://www.mobileworldlive.com/zte-updates-2019-20/zte-and-pmi-malaysia-sign-strategic-cooperation-agreement-on-professional-project-management-ecosystem/
Killexams : PMI Hosts Largest Community of Project Professionals at PMI® Global Summit 2022

6500+ Project Professionals Gathered in Las Vegas and Virtually to Reconnect and Build the Future

Project Management Institute (PMI) held PMI Global Summit 2022, its largest annual gathering of project, program, and portfolio professionals at Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas from 1-3 December. The event included opening keynote remarks from Futurist and Best-Selling Author Amy Webb and closing keynote remarks from Innovator and CEO of Uncharted Jessica O. Matthews.

The three-day conference brought together 3,500 project leaders in person, and more than 3,000 virtual attendees to learn from key players in the industry and earn PDUs and gain valuable knowledge as they network with individuals across the profession. During the event, more than 140 subject matter experts and speakers held various educational sessions on subjects ranging from strategic alignment to agility and transformation. PMI also held a newly revitalized awards celebration, themed "ILLUMINATE!", honoring Ideas and Outstanding Teamwork.

"Global Summit provides a unique opportunity for our community to gather and share ideas, grow their networks, and celebrate their successes," said Pierre Le Manh, President and Chief Executive Officer of Project Management Institute. "As this year's event comes to a close, we're energized by our community's passion and excited to continue being a trusted resource and home for project professionals across the globe."

At the event, leaders discussed the latest PMI® Pulse of the Profession® report, a report created from a premier annual global survey of project professionals, launched earlier this week. The survey found that organizations that prioritize power skills – including communication, problem-solving, collaborative leadership, and strategic thinking – perform better against multiple key drivers of success.

As another way to bring the Global Summit programming to our community, on 1 December, PMI held the final installment of the award-winning Virtual Experience Series 2022, featuring educational sessions livestreamed from PMI Global Summit, including our opening keynote Amy Webb, and an abundance of great content and exhibits. Don't miss out on this opportunity to learn, network, and earn 9+ PDUs. On-demand access will be available through 31 January 2023. Learn more here.

Registration for PMI® Global Summit 2023 will open in early 2023.

About Project Management Institute (PMI)

Project Management Institute (PMI) is the leading professional organization for project management, and the authority for a growing global community of millions of project professionals and individuals who use project management skills. Collectively, these professionals and "changemakers" consistently create better outcomes for businesses, community, and society worldwide.

PMI empowers people to make ideas a reality. Through global advocacy, networking, collaboration, research, and education, PMI prepares organizations and individuals at every stage of their career journey to work smarter so they can drive success in a world of change.

Building on a proud legacy dating to 1969, PMI is a not-for-profit, for-purpose organization working in nearly every country around the world to advance careers, strengthen organizational success, and enable project professionals and changemakers with new skills and ways of working to maximize their impact. PMI offerings include globally recognized standards, certifications, online courses, thought leadership, tools, digital publications, and communities.

Visit us at www.PMI.org, www.projectmanagement.com, www.facebook.com/PMInstitute and on Twitter @PMInstitute.

© 2022 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Mon, 05 Dec 2022 00:59:00 -0600 text/html https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/22/12/b29960136/pmi-hosts-largest-community-of-project-professionals-at-pmi-global-summit-2022
Killexams : PMI identifies new skill set for project success in Nigeria

By Chinenye Anuforo, Lagos

Project Management Institute (PMI), the world’s leading association for project professionals and changemakers, has released its “Pulse of the Profession 2023” – a report that identifies key trends in project management based on findings from PMI’s global survey of 3,500 project, program and portfolio managers.​

Across the 3,500 project professionals surveyed, regardless of region, industry, years of experience, leadership level, or Project Management Professional (PMP) certification status, there was a consensus around the most critical power skills: communication, problem-solving, collaborative leadership, and strategic thinking.

As noted in the PMI Talent Triangle, power skills are a critical skill set for project professionals to navigate the changing world of work and embrace smarter ways of working. Organisations sufficiently tapping into power skills, in addition to technical skills and business acumen, can expect to be better at handling complex project challenges, market changes, technological adoptions, and socioeconomic pressures.

The survey found that organisations placing a high priority on power skills tend to perform better against multiple key drivers of success. 72 per cent of their projects successfully met business goals, only 28 per cent of their projects experienced scope creep, and they experienced less budget loss (17 per cent) when a project failed.

In addition, organisations prioritising power skills are approximately three times more likely to report high benefits realisation management per cent maturity, which is the number one key driver of success for projects identified in the research. Furthermore, they are two times more likely to report high project management maturity, and approximately three times more likely to report high organisational agility.

And while nine out of ten project professionals agree that power skills help them work smarter, organisations face challenges in prioritising the development of power skills. In fact, the report cites cost as the number one barrier to developing power skills, followed by a lack of perceived value. Furthermore, project professionals said they spend 46 per cent of their professional development hours on technical skills and only 29 per cent on power skills.

“Our organisation is committed to empowering project professionals to develop the most robust set of skills to keep pace and create impact,” said Pierre Le Manh, President and Chief Executive Officer of PMI. “Technical skills and business acumen will always be important in project management, but this research shows that to drive the best project outcomes possible, organisations and project leaders must prioritise the development of power skills, too.”

A total of 3,492 project professionals representing a range of industries and regions, including North America, Latin America and the Caribbean, China, Europe, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, Asia Pacific, and Sub-Saharan Africa were surveyed for the creation of this report. The report was supplemented with 12 in-depth interviews with project management experts spanning a range of industries and regions.

Tue, 29 Nov 2022 06:30:00 -0600 en-us text/html https://www.sunnewsonline.com/pmi-identifies-new-skill-set-for-project-success-in-nigeria/
Killexams : GLOBAL ECONOMY-Global factory activity shrank in November but price pressures ease

*

U.S. manufacturing contracts for first time in 2-1/2 years

*

European PMI data suggests downturn may not be as bad

*

China's private survey shows continued PMI contraction

*

Surveys highlight darkening outlook for Asia next year

(Adds U.S. data)

By Lucia Mutikani and Jonathan Cable

WASHINGTON/LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Global factory output fell widely last month with U.S. manufacturing activity contracting for the first time in 2-1/2 years and the impact of China's COVID-19 lockdowns weighing, although the downturn eased in Europe, surveys showed on Thursday.

There were also encouraging signs that inflation may have peaked, or be close to doing so, in many economies as global demand ebbs, although steep price rises and increased borrowing costs as central banks tighten policy aggressively have left indebted consumers feeling the pinch and forcing them to cut spending.

"Global consumers are reining back on spending on discretionary goods in a world of stagflation," said Duncan Wrigley at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

In the world's largest economy, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 2-1/2 years in November as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand for goods, but a measure of prices paid by factories for inputs fell for a second straight month, supporting views that inflation could continue trending lower.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 last month, under the 50 level that marks growth in activity. That was the first contraction and also the weakest reading since May 2020, when the economy was reeling from the initial wave of COVID-19 infections, and followed 50.2 in October.

The Federal Reserve is in the midst of what has become the fastest rate-hiking cycle since the early 1980s, as it battles inflation, raising the risks of a recession next year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank could scale back the pace of its rate increases "as soon as December." The Fed has raised its policy rate by 375 basis points this year from near zero to a 3.75%-4.00% range.

Elsewhere, while the surveys indicated that factories in the euro zone still face a harsh winter it may not be as bad as initially feared and there were indications rampant inflationary pressures were abating.

S&P Global's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the euro zone rose to 47.1 from October's 46.4, but was below a preliminary reading of 47.3.

An index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Monday and seen as a good guide to economic health, rose to 46.0 from 43.8, marking its sixth month of sub-50 readings.

"Today's PMI data corroborate our view that manufacturing is headed for a winter recession but suggest the outlook for the sector is starting to Boost slightly," said Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani at Oxford Economics. Economists in a accurate Reuters poll gave a 78% chance of a recession within a year.

However, both the input and output prices indexes dropped substantially, likely welcome news to policymakers at the European Central Bank.

In Britain, outside the European Union, manufacturing activity fell for a fourth month in a row, as businesses faced the weakest overseas demand in 2-1/2 years, leading to job cuts and reduced confidence about the year ahead, its PMI showed.

The figures added to signs Britain's economy has fallen into recession, although there was a glimmer of light there too for the Bank of England as factory output price inflation slowed to its lowest since March 2021.

ASIAN WOES

The results highlighted Asia's darkening economic outlook for 2023, as China's lockdowns disrupt international supply and heighten fears of a further slump in its economy, the world's second-largest.

Those lockdowns have hit production and stoked rare street protests across many cities in China.

Amid the pandemic curbs, Chinese factory activity shrank in November, a private survey showed. The result implied weaker employment and economic growth in the fourth quarter.

China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI stood at 49.4 in November, up from 49.2 in the previous month. It has been below 50 for four consecutive months.

The figure followed downbeat data in an official survey on Wednesday that showed manufacturing activity had hit a seven-month low in November.

Analysts see mounting downside risks to China's economic growth in the fourth quarter, despite a flurry of policies to shore up activity, including cuts to banks' required reserve ratios and support for the sluggish property sector.

The impact of China's woes was felt widely across Asia. Taiwan's PMI stood at 41.6 in November and Vietnam's PMI fell to 47.4. Indonesia's slid to 50.3 from 51.8.

Manufacturing activity also contracted in export-reliant economies, including Japan and South Korea, and in emerging nations, such as Vietnam, underscoring widening damage from weak global demand and stubbornly high input costs, surveys showed.

Japan's au Jibun Bank PMI also fell, to 49.0 in November from 50.7, its first contraction since November 2020.

South Korea's factory activity shrank for a fifth straight month but the downturn moderated slightly, possibly suggesting the worst was over for businesses there.

However, South Korea's exports in November suffered their steepest annual drop in 2-1/2 years, separate data showed, hit by cooling global demand in major markets led by China and a downturn in the semiconductor industry.

In a rare bright sign, India saw factory activity expand in November at its fastest pace in three months, thanks to robust demand for consumer goods and a slowdown in input-cost inflation. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Jonathan Cable and Leika Kihara; Writing by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Bradley Perrett, Susan Fenton and Andrea Ricci)

Thu, 01 Dec 2022 01:52:55 -0600 en-US text/html https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/global-economy-global-factory-activity-shrank-in-november-but-price-pressures-ease/ar-AA14O88B
Killexams : Manufacturing PMI® at 49%; November 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

New Orders Contracting; Production Growing; Backlogs Contracting; supplier Deliveries Faster; Raw Materials Inventories Growing; Customers' Inventories Too Low; Prices Decreasing; Exports and Imports Contracting

TEMPE, Ariz., Dec. 1, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time since May 2020 after 29 consecutive months of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

"The November Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 50.2 percent recorded in October. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates expansion for the 30th month in a row after contraction in April and May 2020. The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.2 percent, 2 percentage points lower than the 49.2 percent recorded in October. The Production Index reading of 51.5 percent is a 0.8-percentage point decrease compared to October's figure of 52.3 percent. The Prices Index registered 43 percent, down 3.6 percentage points compared to the October figure of 46.6 percent; this is the index's lowest reading since May 2020 (40.8 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 40 percent, 5.3 percentage points lower than the October reading of 45.3 percent. The Employment Index returned to contraction territory (48.4 percent, down 1.6 percentage points) after being unchanged in October at 50 percent. The supplier Deliveries Index reading of 47.2 percent is 0.4 percentage point higher than the October figure of 46.8 percent. Except for last month, the supplier Deliveries Index hasn't been at this level since February 2012 (47 percent). The Inventories Index registered 50.9 percent, 1.6 percentage points lower than the October reading of 52.5 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 48.4 percent is up 1.9 percentage points compared to October's figure of 46.5 percent. The Imports Index dropped into contraction territory at 46.6 percent, 4.2 percentage points below the October reading of 50.8 percent."

Fiore continues, "The U.S. manufacturing sector dipped into contraction, with the Manufacturing PMI® at its lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic recovery began. With Business Survey Committee panelists reporting softening new order rates over the previous six months, the November composite index reading reflects companies' preparing for future lower output. Demand eased, with the (1) New Orders Index remaining in contraction territory, (2) New Export Orders Index below 50 percent for a fourth consecutive month, (3) Customers' Inventories Index effectively in 'just right' territory, climbing 7.1 percentage points, and (4) Backlog of Orders Index moving deeper into contraction. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) declined month over month, with a combined negative 2.4-percentage point impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. The Employment Index moved back into contraction, and the Production Index decreased but still remained in modest growth territory. Panelists' companies confirm that they are continuing to manage head counts through a combination of hiring freezes, employee attrition, and now layoffs. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — mostly accommodated future demand growth. The supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries, and the Inventories Index expanded at a slower rate as panelists' companies continued to manage the total supply chain inventory. The Prices Index decreased for the ninth consecutive month, falling deeper into contraction territory.

"Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two — Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment — registered weak-to-moderate growth in November.

"Manufacturing contracted in November after expanding for 29 straight months. Panelists' companies continue to judiciously manage hiring, other than October 2022, the month-over-month supplier delivery performance was the best since February 2012 when it registered 47 percent, and material lead times declined approximately 9 percent from the prior month, approximately 18 percent over the last four months. Managing head counts and total supply chain inventories remain primary goals. Order backlogs, prices and now lead times are declining rapidly, which should bring buyers and sellers back to the table to refill order books based on 2023 business plans."

Six manufacturing industries reported growth in November, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment. The 12 industries reporting contraction in November, in the following order, are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Paper Products; Textile Mills; Fabricated Metal Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

  • "Customer demand is softening, yet suppliers are maintaining high prices and record profits. Pushing for cost reductions based on market evidence has been surprisingly successful." [Computer & Electronic Products]

  • "Future volumes are on a downward trend for the next 60 days." [Chemical Products]

  • "Orders for transportation equipment remain strong. Supply chain issues persist, with minimal direct effect on output." [Transportation Equipment]

  • "Consumer goods are slowing down in several of our markets, although the U.S. economy seems decent. Cannot say the same for the European economy." [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

  • "General economic uncertainty has created a slowdown in orders as we approach the end of the year, and many of our key customers are reducing their capital expenditures spend." [Machinery]

  • "Overall, things are worsening. Housing starts are down. We're doing well against our competitors, but the industry overall is down. We're sitting on cash (that is) tied up in inventory." [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

  • "The market remains consistent: sales match expectations; there are concerns about the impact of rising interest rates on customers; most suppliers have recovered on labor, but some are still struggling; and inflation seems to have peaked, but commodity price decreases have not been passed through to us. Lots of unknowns regarding impact to the European Union from the Russia-Ukraine war and questions about customer behavior in 2023." [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

  • "There is caution going into 2023, but the commercial section of construction seems to still be going strong." [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]

  • "Looking into December and the first quarter of 2023, business is softening as uncertain economic conditions lie ahead." [Plastics & Rubber Products]

  • "Slight improvement on overall business conditions from the previous month." [Primary Metals]

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
November 2022

Index

Series
Index

Nov

Series
Index

Oct

Percentage

Point

Change

Direction

Rate of
Change

Trend*
(Months)

Manufacturing PMI®

49.0

50.2

-1.2

Contracting

From Growing

1

New Orders

47.2

49.2

-2.0

Contracting

Faster

3

Production

51.5

52.3

-0.8

Growing

Slower

30

Employment

48.4

50.0

-1.6

Contracting

From Unchanged

1

Supplier Deliveries

47.2

46.8

+0.4

Faster

Slower

2

Inventories

50.9

52.5

-1.6

Growing

Slower

16

Customers' Inventories

48.7

41.6

+7.1

Too Low

Slower

74

Prices

43.0

46.6

-3.6

Decreasing

Faster

2

Backlog of Orders

40.0

45.3

-5.3

Contracting

Faster

2

New Export Orders

48.4

46.5

+1.9

Contracting

Slower

4

Imports

46.6

50.8

-4.2

Contracting

From Growing

1

OVERALL ECONOMY

Growing

Slower

30

Manufacturing Sector

Contracting

From Growing

1

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Electrical Components; Electricity; Electronic Components (24); and Labor — Temporary (3).

Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum (7); Copper (2); Freight; Lumber (3); Ocean Freight (3); Plastic Resins (6); Polypropylene (4); Steel (7); Steel — Carbon (5); Steel — Hot Rolled (7); and Steel Products (5).

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (26); Electronic Components (24); Hydraulic Components (7); Rubber Based Products; Semiconductors (24); and Steel Products.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

NOVEMBER 2022 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in November, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent, 1.2 percentage points below the reading of 50.2 percent recorded in October. "After five months of flat or marginally positive change, the decrease last month took the Manufacturing PMI® into contraction. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, two (Production and Inventories) were in growth territory, though both eased. The PMI® registered its lowest level since May 2020, when the index was 43.5 percent. Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, two — Petroleum & Coal Products; and Transportation Equipment — registered weak-to-moderate growth in November. The Production Index decreased 0.8 percentage point, inching closer to contraction territory. Supply chain congestion continued to ease, indicated by the supplier Deliveries Index showing faster deliveries. Only two of the 10 subindexes were positive for the period," says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the November Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew in November for the 30th consecutive month following contraction in April and May 2020. "The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for November (49 percent) corresponds to a 0.1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis," says Fiore.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Month

Manufacturing
PMI®

Month

Manufacturing
PMI®

Nov 2022

49.0

May 2022

56.1

Oct 2022

50.2

Apr 2022

55.4

Sep 2022

50.9

Mar 2022

57.1

Aug 2022

52.8

Feb 2022

58.6

Jul 2022

52.8

Jan 2022

57.6

Jun 2022

53.0

Dec 2021

58.8

Average for 12 months – 54.4

High – 58.8

Low – 49.0

New Orders
ISM®'s New Orders Index contracted for the third consecutive month in November, registering 47.2 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points compared to the 49.2 percent reported in October. "None of the six largest manufacturing sectors reported increased new orders. Price and lead time declines as well as backlog contraction should encourage buyers to reenter the market and sales agents to be more aggressive in seeking new business," says Fiore. (For more on lead times, see the Buying Policy section of this report.) A New Orders Index above 52.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, only one reported growth in new orders in November: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products. Fourteen industries reported a decline in new orders in November, in the following order: Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.

New Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Nov 2022

12.7

62.3

25.0

-12.3

47.2

Oct 2022

18.3

56.4

25.3

-7.0

49.2

Sep 2022

16.0

62.8

21.2

-5.2

47.1

Aug 2022

17.5

63.1

19.4

-1.9

51.3

Production
The Production Index registered 51.5 percent in November, 0.8 percentage point lower than the October reading of 52.3 percent, indicating growth for the 30th consecutive month. "Of the top six industries, only two — Computer & Electronic Products; and Transportation Equipment — expanded in November. Materials and labor availability continue to improve, as panelists' companies begin to significantly reduce their backlogs of overdue orders," says Fiore. An index above 52.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures.

The seven industries reporting growth in production during the month of November — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The seven industries reporting a decrease in production in November — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Production

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Nov 2022

20.2

61.7

18.1

+2.1

51.5

Oct 2022

20.2

62.3

17.5

+2.7

52.3

Sep 2022

17.5

64.3

18.2

-0.7

50.6

Aug 2022

17.6

65.4

17.0

+0.6

50.4

Employment
ISM®'s Employment Index registered 48.4 percent in November, 1.6 percentage points lower than the October reading of 50 percent. "The index indicated employment contracted after being unchanged for one month. Of the six big manufacturing sectors, only two (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery) expanded. Labor management sentiment continued to shift, with a number of panelists' companies reducing employment levels through hiring freezes, attrition, and now layoffs. In November, layoffs were mentioned in 14 percent of employment comments, up from 6 percent in October. Turnover rates remained consistent, with 30 percent of comments citing backfill and retirement issues, generally the same rate since September. For those companies expanding their workforces, comments continue to support an improving hiring environment," says Fiore. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

Of 18 manufacturing industries, seven reported employment growth in November, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. The five industries reporting a decrease in employment in November are: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. Six industries reported no change in employment in November compared to October.

Employment

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Nov 2022

12.8

70.6

16.6

-3.8

48.4

Oct 2022

16.0

68.9

15.1

+0.9

50.0

Sep 2022

17.5

60.3

22.2

-4.7

48.7

Aug 2022

19.3

68.3

12.4

+6.9

54.2

Supplier Deliveries
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster for a second straight month in November, as the supplier Deliveries Index registered 47.2 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the 46.8 percent reported in October. Prior to October, the last reading under 50 percent was in February 2016 (49.6 percent); this is the first time the index has spent consecutive months in "faster" territory since October-December 2015. Of the top six manufacturing industries, one (Petroleum & Coal Products) reported slower deliveries. "Although a touch slower than the previous month, the November reading indicates the best month-over-month supplier deliveries performance in more than a decade (since February 2012, when the index registered 47 percent). In November, 86.1 percent of panelists reported 'same' or 'faster' delivery times. Panelists' comments overwhelmingly confirmed that suppliers performed better in November compared to previous months," says Fiore. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.

Six of 18 manufacturing industries reported slower supplier deliveries in November, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The 11 industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in November as compared to October — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Supplier Deliveries

%Slower

%Same

%Faster

  Net

Index

Nov 2022

13.9

66.5

19.6

-5.7

47.2

Oct 2022

11.7

70.2

18.1

-6.4

46.8

Sep 2022

16.8

71.2

12.0

+4.8

52.4

Aug 2022

19.6

71.0

9.4

+10.2

55.1

Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 50.9 percent in November, 1.6 percentage points lower than the 52.5 percent reported for October. "Manufacturing inventories expanded at a slower rate compared to October. The index recorded its lowest level since July 2021, when it registered 49.1 percent. Of the six big manufacturing industries, four (Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) increased manufacturing raw material inventories in November. Panelists' companies continue their efforts to reduce their total supply chain inventories, indicated by the contraction in new orders, slow expansion in manufacturing inventories and the 'just right' level of customers' inventories," says Fiore. An Inventories Index greater than 44.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).

Of 18 manufacturing industries, the eight reporting higher inventories in November — in the following order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The eight industries reporting contracting inventories in November — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

Inventories

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Nov 2022

20.9

58.3

20.8

+0.1

50.9

Oct 2022

21.6

63.3

15.1

+6.5

52.5

Sep 2022

23.0

64.9

12.1

+10.9

55.5

Aug 2022

23.2

62.9

13.9

+9.3

53.1

Customers' Inventories
ISM®'s Customers' Inventories Index registered 48.7 percent in November, 7.1 percentage points higher than the 41.6 percent reported for October. "Customers' inventory levels are considered essentially 'just right.' The index recorded its highest level since April 2020 (48.8 percent). The current index level is no longer providing positive support to future manufacturing expansion," says Fiore.

Six industries reported customers' inventories as too high in November, in the following order: Textile Mills; Paper Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The eight industries reporting customers' inventories as too low in November — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Customers'
Inventories

%
Reporting

%Too
High

%About
Right

%Too
Low

Net

Index

Nov 2022

77

20.6

56.2

23.2

-2.6

48.7

Oct 2022

74

13.4

56.3

30.3

-16.9

41.6

Sep 2022

73

13.5

56.1

30.4

-16.9

41.6

Aug 2022

75

12.2

53.4

34.4

-22.2

38.9

Prices
The ISM® Prices Index registered 43 percent in November, 3.6 percentage points lower compared to the October reading of 46.6 percent, indicating raw materials prices decreased for the second time in 29 months. This is the index's lowest level since a reading of 40.8 percent in May 2020. Over the past eight months, the index has decreased 44.1 percentage points, including a combined 26-percentage point plunge in July and August. None of the top six manufacturing industries reported increases in prices in November. "Price declines continue to be driven by relaxation in energy markets, copper, steel, aluminum, plastics, corrugate and as well as volatility in freight costs. Notably, 87 percent of respondents reported paying the same or lower prices in November, compared to 80 percent in October," says Fiore. A Prices Index above 52.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.

In November, only one industry reported paying increased prices for raw materials: Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The 10 industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in November — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products. Seven industries reported no change in prices in November compared to October.

Prices

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Nov 2022

13.1

59.8

27.1

-14.0

43.0

Oct 2022

19.7

53.8

26.5

-6.8

46.6

Sep 2022

31.4

40.5

28.1

+3.3

51.7

Aug 2022

31.7

41.6

26.7

+5.0

52.5

Backlog of Orders
ISM®'s Backlog of Orders Index registered 40 percent in November, a 5.3-percentage point decrease compared to October's reading of 45.3 percent, indicating order backlogs contracted for the second consecutive month after a 27-month period of expansion. Of the six largest manufacturing sectors, only one — Machinery — expanded order backlogs in November. "Backlogs contracted again in November at a notable rate, as weak new order levels combined with production expansion negatively impacted manufacturing books of business," says Fiore. "The index recorded its lowest level since May 2020, when it registered 38.2 percent."

Two industries reported growth in order backlogs in November: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Machinery. Twelve industries reported lower backlogs in November, in the following order: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Printing & Related Support Activities; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products.

Backlog of
Orders

%
Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Nov 2022

91

13.7

52.6

33.7

-20.0

40.0

Oct 2022

93

17.4

55.8

26.8

-9.4

45.3

Sep 2022

90

25.5

50.8

23.7

+1.8

50.9

Aug 2022

93

24.6

56.7

18.7

+5.9

53.0

New Export Orders ISM®'s New Export Orders Index registered 48.4 percent in November, 1.9 percentage points higher than the October reading of 46.5 percent. "The New Export Orders Index contracted in November for the fourth consecutive month after 25 straight months in expansion territory. Weakness in European economies and China's economic sluggishness, as well as the strong dollar, continued to constrain new export order activity and negatively impact new order rates," says Fiore.

Three industries reported growth in new export orders in November: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The four industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in November are: Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products. Ten industries reported no change in new export orders in November compared to October.

New Export
Orders

%
Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Nov 2022

72

11.2

74.4

14.4

-3.2

48.4

Oct 2022

73

6.7

79.5

13.8

-7.1

46.5

Sep 2022

72

9.4

76.7

13.9

-4.5

47.8

Aug 2022

75

9.9

79.0

11.1

-1.2

49.4

Imports
ISM®'s Imports Index registered 46.6 percent in November, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points compared to October's figure of 50.8 percent. "The index moved into contraction in November after five months of expansion, dropping to its lowest level since May 2020 (41.3 percent)," says Fiore.

The four industries reporting growth in imports in November are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment. Nine industries reported lower volumes of imports in November, in the following order: Wood Products; Paper Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Imports

% Reporting

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Nov 2022

84

10.2

72.8

17.0

-6.8

46.6

Oct 2022

84

9.3

82.9

7.8

+1.5

50.8

Sep 2022

83

15.2

74.8

10.0

+5.2

52.6

Aug 2022

83

15.6

73.8

10.6

+5.0

52.5

The supplier Deliveries, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.

Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in November was 177 days, a decrease of two days compared to October. Average lead time in November for Production Materials was 84 days, a decrease of nine days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 44 days, a decrease of four days.

Percent Reporting

Capital
Expenditures

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Nov 2022

16

4

8

11

33

28

177

Oct 2022

16

6

6

12

30

30

179

Sep 2022

16

5

7

11

32

29

178

Aug 2022

18

5

6

11

29

31

180

Percent Reporting

Production Materials

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Nov 2022

8

23

25

27

13

4

84

Oct 2022

8

21

26

25

13

7

93

Sep 2022

9

24

24

22

13

8

94

Aug 2022

7

22

24

25

15

7

96

Percent Reporting

MRO Supplies

Hand-to-
Mouth

30 Days

60 Days

90 Days

6 Months

1 Year+

Average
Days

Nov 2022

30

34

17

15

3

1

44

Oct 2022

27

36

16

15

5

1

48

Sep 2022

26

35

19

15

4

1

48

Aug 2022

26

34

21

14

5

0

46

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of November 2022.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is stratified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following NAICS-based industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data are weighted based on each industry's contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2020 GDP (released December 22, 2021), the six largest manufacturing subsectors are: Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery. Beginning in February 2018 with January 2018 data, computation of the indexes is accomplished utilizing unrounded numbers.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).

The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted).

Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.7 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.7 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted.

ISM ROB Content
The Institute for Supply Management® ("ISM") Report On Business® (both Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing) ("ISM ROB") contains information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, "Content") of ISM ("ISM ROB Content"). ISM ROB Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM ROB Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM ROB Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM ROB Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM ROB Content.

Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.

You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 West Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing kcahill@ismworld.org. Subject: Content Request.

ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business®, PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.

About Institute for Supply Management®
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM® Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM® Advance Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring December 2022 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, January 4, 2023.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

Contact:

Kristina Cahill

Report On Business® Analyst

ISM®, ROB/Research Manager

Tempe, Arizona

+1 480.455.5910

Email: kcahill@ismworld.org

Institute for Supply Management logo. (PRNewsFoto/Institute for Supply Management) (PRNewsfoto/Institute for Supply Management)

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SOURCE Institute for Supply Management

Thu, 01 Dec 2022 01:03:00 -0600 en-US text/html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/manufacturing-pmi-49-november-2022-150000642.html
Killexams : Flash PMI Survey Data Signal Growing Impact From Rate Hikes On Economy And Inflation
Currency and Exchange Stock Chart for Finance and Economy Display

cemagraphics

A marked divergence has developed between resilient official economic data and softer business survey statistics in the US. Past performance suggests that the surveys provide important advance signals on the health of the economy, and represent a more accurate picture of the underlying trend in the economy than volatile and backward-looking official data such as GDP.

More importantly, the weaker PMI survey data are more in line with many economists' expectations of the impact of accurate aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, which the survey data also reveal to have brought down inflationary pressures to a marked degree. An improvement in supplier delivery times, a key gauge of pricing power, has even moved to territory indicative of a shift from the sellers'- to a buyers'-market, hinting that inflationary pressures could moderate further in coming months, potentially quite significantly.

PMI signals fourth quarter GDP decline

Business conditions across the US worsened in November, according to the preliminary PMI survey findings. The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index from S&P Global registered 46.3 in November, down from 48.2 at the start of the fourth quarter. The rate of contraction signalled was the sharpest since August and among the quickest since 2009.

S&P Global PMI vs. US GDP growth

With output and demand falling at increased rates in November, the PMI survey data are consistent with the economy contracting at an annualised rate of 1% in the fourth quarter so far.

The weak November flash PMI numbers add to a growing divergence between the survey data and the accurate path of GDP recorded in the US, with GDP and the PMI having in fact diverged to an unusual degree so far this year. The PMI showed business growth accelerating up to the spring, but growth has faded since peaking in March, to the extent that November's decline represents a fifth consecutive month of falling business activity. By contrast, GDP fell at annualised rates of 1.6% and 0.6% in the first and second quarters respectively, before reviving to show 2.6% growth in the third quarter. Estimates for fourth quarter growth also suggest surprising resilience, with the Atlanta Fed nowcast, for example, pointing to GDP growth in excess of 4% for the fourth quarter.

PMI weakness led by financial services

To get a better perspective on the accurate weakness of the PMI, we can look into the sub-sector trends. November saw an accelerating rate of decline of service sector activity, accompanied by a renewed fall in manufacturing output, to suggest a broad-based malaise of the business activity.

US PMI output by broad sector (to November)

Digging down a further layer, output trends are clearly more varied. Broad industry-level PMI data (currently only available up to October) reveal that by far the steepest downturn has been suffered by financial service providers in accurate months. The next-steepest decline was recorded for consumer services, albeit with the rate of decline easing, followed by basic materials firms and then consumer goods, albeit with the latter reporting only a marginal decline in October.

In contrast, technology first reported the strongest output gain for five months in October, and healthcare returned to growth for the first time in six months. Modest growth was seen for industrials (which includes producers and B2B service providers).

US PMI output by industry (to October)

These divergent trends by industry are not surprising, given accurate headwinds to the economy. Companies are reporting downward pressure on sales from the rising cost of living and from tightening financial conditions -notably higher borrowing costs. It is therefore understandable that financial services, which includes real estate, and consumer-facing sectors are consequently suffering the steepest downturns at present.

Weakening global demand hits manufacturing

Companies are also reporting weakened demand across both home and export markets, notably in terms of manufactured goods as the cost of living squeeze is exacerbated by reduced inventory building, and in many cases the shift towards inventory reduction. Note that manufacturing production is weakening on a global basis, with rising inventories of unsold stock and un-used inputs being increasingly widely reported amid the downturn in demand.

Hence, manufacturing output is turning down sharply now in the US, led by basic resources firms, which are at the leading edge of the downturn in demand for inputs by producers around the world. Barring the initial COVID-19 shutdowns of 2020, the latest manufacturing PMI readings are the weakest since the global financial crisis.

The S&P Global PMI readings bode ill for the official manufacturing data, which have recently shown resilience but now look prone to a fall. The S&P Global US PMI index has historically exhibited a higher correlation than other business surveys (since 2007, when S&P Global PMI data were first available). However, the signals from the other surveys corroborate the accurate weakness depicted by the S&P Global US PMI, with a common theme of strong growth earlier in the year giving way to a rate of decline of approximately 2% on a quarterly basis. In short, the various survey data are consistent in warning of an imminent downturn in the official manufacturing production data.

US manufacturing output
US manufacturing output survey comparisons
US official manufacturing production

Service sector hit by rising cost of living

In the service sector, private sector business activity has also been slumping in accurate months at a rate not seen for over a decade, excluding the initial pandemic months, which - while in contrast to official data - is not representing a major divergence from ISM non-manufacturing data. Although the latter remains somewhat stronger than the S&P Global US services PMI, the ISM data coverage extends beyond private sector services to include government and energy sectors, which are often counter cyclical, with the energy sector in particular having benefitted considerably during the crisis caused by the Ukraine war. Hence, especially given the latter's greater exposure to interest-rate sensitive sectors such as consumer services and real estate, the relative outperformance of the ISM relative to the S&P Global US services PMI is no great surprise.

US service sector surveys

Fed policy curbing growth and inflation

The impact of higher borrowing costs and tightening financial conditions from FOMC rate hikes is illustrated clearly when the PMI data are charted against historical FOMC policy decisions. accurate months have seen the most aggressive Fed tightening in modern history, and any lack of impact on the economy would run counter to expectations.

US PMI survey output and price data vs. FOMC policy decisions

However, although induing a downturn in business activity, more encouragingly Fed rate hikes also appear to be driving down inflationary pressures, as signaled by a further marked cooling in the rate of increase of firms' costs in November.

The all-sector PMI input cost index sank to its lowest since December 2020, and had fallen continually since peak in May 2022. This PMI index acts as a reliable forward-indicator of consumer price inflation, and points to inflation falling markedly further from the latest rate of 7.7%.

US PMI input costs and consumer price inflation

The cooling of inflationary pressures in the PMI is being led by an especially marked slowing of input cost inflation in manufacturing, which is also clearly being likewise signalled in the official producer price data. However, service sector input cost inflation also cooled slightly in November.

US producer prices

Improving supply chains

Brighter news on inflation was also provided by the survey data on supply chains. supplier performance improved in November, as measured by average supplier delivery times, for the first time in over three years, marking a major change in supply conditions relative to that seen throughout much of the pandemic.

While the reduced supply chain stress is partly a symptom of lower demand, the alleviation of supply delays removes a key driver of inflationary pressures and has helped moderate the overall rate of input cost inflation to a near two-year low. November even saw increasing numbers of suppliers, factories and service providers offering discounts to help boost flagging sales.

In this environment, inflationary pressures should continue to cool in the months ahead, potentially markedly.

US PMI survey supplier delivery times and input costs

Original Post

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

Mon, 28 Nov 2022 21:02:00 -0600 en text/html https://seekingalpha.com/article/4561071-flash-pmi-survey-data-signal-growing-impact-rate-hikes-economy-inflation
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