CA-Real-Estate candidate - California Real Estate exam Updated: 2023

This month Californians panic about the cost of housing were offered the rarest of gifts: a glimmer of hope.

New numbers released by the Newsom administration show that California added homes to its housing stock at a faster clip than any time since the Great Recession — 123,350 additional units, or an increase of 0.85%.

Over that same period, the state’s population declined, marking the third year in a row that it’s fallen from one new year to the next.

Put those two numbers together and a surprising statistic emerges: There are now more homes per person — 3,770 units for every 10,000 Californians — than there have been since at least 1991.

For a state that has long suffered from too many people trying to cram themselves into too few homes, that’s an encouraging number at first glance.

It’s also the kind of news that might lead a person to wonder: Does this California exodus mean the state’s perennial housing shortage is finally coming to an end?

The long answer is “it’s complicated.”

Though many analysts have tried, no consensus exists on just how many more homes the state would need to build (or how many more people would need to leave) before we can call an end to the crisis and start to see rents and home prices fall within reach of working and middle class Californians.

But the short answer is “almost definitely, no.”

Much of the outflow of residents is itself driven by the high cost of living. In March, the median price of an existing single family California home was $791,490, more than twice the national median of $375,700.

“When house prices go up, people leave,” said Dowell Myers, a demographer at the University of Southern California.

Gov. Gavin Newsom said as much in a latest interview with UCLA’s Blueprint, naming the cost of living as the “principal driver” and its chronic shortage of homes “our original sin.”

And while experts don’t agree on exactly how much additional housing the state might need to attain an ill-defined “affordability,” they do agree on this much: it’s a whole lot more.

Just how big is California’s housing shortage?

In 2000, a report issued by California’s Department of Housing and Community Development estimated that the state would need to build 220,000 additional units each year for two decades to meet the needs of what was then still a growing population.

Needless to say, that didn’t happen. Even last year, a relative high-water mark for home construction, the total was roughly 100,000 units below that goal.

The department published another estimate in 2018 urging 180,000 units per year through 2025. And last year, in putting together housing goals for regions across the state, the department’s total prescription added up to 2.5 million new homes over the next eight years (or 315,000 per year).

The administration acknowledged the state’s sluggish population growth in its latest proposed budget for next year, which gauged the need at 148,000 new units per year.

One of the reasons these estimates vary is because there’s no single definition of a “housing shortage.”

In 2015, for example, the Legislative Analyst’s Office, an agency that serves as a think tank for state legislators, framed the issue with the following question: How many units would the state have had to build between 1980 and 2010 to keep the median value of an owner-occupied home increasing at the same rate as the rest of the nation, rather than skyrocketing so much higher, as it has for the last half century?

That definition of the state’s shortage led the office to estimate 210,000 each year. Alas, the state has only hit that annual mark five times since 1980 — and not once since 1990.

A year later, the global consulting firm McKinsey & Company, put out its own figure — 3.5 million homes by 2025. Newsom took that eye-popping figure as a rallying cry during his first gubernatorial run, when the then-candidate vowed that California would reach that total by the end of his second term. He’s since scaled the pledge back to 2.5 million, a goal the state is still unlikely to reach.

McKinsey based its estimate on its own version of the state’s housing problem: the number of new units required to bring California’s houses-to-people ratio in line with that of the rest of the country.

The common thread behind all these estimates is they are all very, very big. And whichever shortfall estimate you choose, the state has never hit the mark.

A moving target

But the numbers have been moving in a more encouraging direction in latest years.

The totals since 2020: roughly 430,000 new homes and some 821,000 fewer Californians competing to reside within them. That necessarily narrows the gap, however we define it, said Hans Johnson, a researcher at the Public Policy Institute of California.

If the shortage is relatively modest, he said, and “if we continue like this for another decade, with very slow population growth or essentially no population growth, and with fairly robust housing construction, then it should start to eat into that lack of housing,” he said.

But if the state needs to hit McKinsey-esque levels of new production, counted in the millions of units, “we’re still a long, long way off,” he added.

That’s in part because the size of the hole is so large. But it’s also because the shortfall is “a moving target,” explained Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. The building industry booms and busts. Young Californians grow old enough to live out on their own while older ones begin to die off. And people’s housing wants and needs change, too.

How COVID worsened the housing crisis

A particularly dramatic driver of such change: the pandemic.

Eager to keep COVID at bay and seeking more space to work from home, Californians dumped their roommates when they could and sought out places to live on their own, resulting in a great “spreading out,” as analysts at the Public Policy Institute of California put it. The trend toward fewer people living in each home is nationwide and long term. Over the last 40 years, the number of people living alone doubled across the country. But the pandemic put the trend on overdrive.

That worsened the state’s housing shortage. Even if the total number of Californians continues its gradual downward drift, more homes are needed to house the roughly 38 million sticking around.

Starting in June 2020, the median price of an existing single-family home shot up from $626,170 to a peak of $900,170 in May 2022, according to data compiled by the California Association of Realtors. That’s an increase of 44% in less than two years.

Since then high interest rates have brought California’s housing inflation back down to earth slightly. But the median price in March was still 29% above where it was three years earlier.

Whether Californians will begin clustering together again as COVID concerns ease is an open question. But there’s no sign that’s happening yet. By the beginning of 2023, with the worst of the pandemic presumably behind us, the number of Californians per household hit a record low of 2.77.

Plus, if the California exodus is a cure to the state’s housing shortage, it’s also a symptom, said Dowell.

“The ones who are older are leaving because they’re (homeowners) cashing in their gains,” he said of the nearly 8 million ex-Californians who exited the state last decade.”The young people who are leaving, we now think, are leaving because they can’t buy a house here.”

And even if those departures do ultimately alleviate the state’s scarcity of homes, it’s not the solution to the problem that anyone should want, adds Johnson from Public Policy Institute of California.

“I don’t think any of us who have been advocating for building more housing in California — to help alleviate the shortage of housing we’ve had and to Boost affordability in the state — thought that the best path was just to have the state start to depopulate.”

© Provided by Washington Examiner

IRVINE, California — You don’t have to be a tenured law professor or state lawmaker to understand the threat to public safety, and legal consequences, of a DUI arrest. But there’s absolutely no excuse if you hold those legal and lawmaker credentials.

That’s the position Democratic state Sen. David Min finds himself in as he runs for California’s open 47th Congressional District, covering coastal Orange County and Irvine. With the Democratic incumbent, Rep. Katie Porter, running for the Senate, Republicans see the seat as a key pickup opportunity in a quest to expand their current 222-213 House majority. House Democrats are counting on holding the seat in their quest to regain the majority they lost in the 2022 elections.

WHO'S IN, WHO'S OUT, AND WHO'S STILL WAITING TO ANNOUNCE FOR SENATE IN 2024

In California’s top-two primary system, Republican Scott Baugh, who lost to Porter in 2022 51.7% to 48.3%, was and is expected to gain a November ballot spot. Min was widely seen as the leading Democratic to run against Baugh since former Rep. Harley Rouda bowed out of the race amid recovery from a moderate traumatic brain injury.

But Min turned out to be his own worst enemy. He was arrested on the night of May 2 in Sacramento. Min was pulled over near the state Capitol by the California Highway Patrol when he drove through a red light with his headlights off, according to the arrest report.

Officers conducted a DUI test and arrested him on suspicion of driving with a blood alcohol level above the legal limit. He was booked into the Sacramento County jail and released on May 3.

Min, 47, tried to get out ahead of the bad news.

“To my family, constituents, and supporters, I am so deeply sorry. I know I need to do better,” he said in a statement. “I will not let this personal failure distract from our work in California and in Washington.”

Yet the episode is only the latest reminder that sterling academic credentials and some success in politics don’t come with good judgment and wisdom. Min is an alum of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of business and Harvard Law School. He went on to be an assistant law professor at the University of California, Irvine, focusing on the law and policy of banking, capital markets, and real estate.

After losing to Porter for Congress in 2018, Min in 2020 won an overlapping coastal Orange County state Senate seat. Before Min’s arrest, he had been considered a strong candidate to hold the seat. (Porter has endorsed her former UCI law school professor colleague.)

Many area Republicans have called on Min to quit the race. But so have some Democrats. Or they're at least strongly hinting that Min should exit.

Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA), chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, practically invited other candidates from his party to join the 47th District race.

“The filing deadline is in December," Aguilar said at the California Democratic Party convention on May 27. Of Min, Aguilar added, "I think it was a terrible lapse in judgment, terrible decision-making.”

And Rouda, who held a differently configured pre-redistricting coastal Orange County House seat from 2019-21, is endorsing a different candidate, Joanna Weiss, an attorney and progressive activist.

Voters unforgiving of candidate DUIs

In addition to being a stark threat to public safety, DUIs can be politically tricky. For voters, it’s an easy-to-understand offense, unlike some complicated financial scandals. Before Min, the highest-profile latest DUI was committed by Paul Pelosi, the husband of then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).

In August 2022, Paul Pelosi was sentenced to five days in jail after being convicted Tuesday of misdemeanor DUI in Northern California, the Napa County District Attorney’s Office announced at the time. Pelosi, then 82, was arrested May 28, 2022, and later charged with DUI and causing injury — "based upon an automobile collision," the DA said — and having a blood alcohol level above 0.08%.

Still, House Republicans, amid a hard-fought battle to win control of the chamber, nary said a word about Mr. Pelosi. That’s because several Republican lawmakers over the years have had DUI problems, though voters are a lot more forgiving of incumbent lawmakers.

In November 2005, then-Texas GOP Rep. Kevin Brady pleaded no contest to a drunken driving charge in South Dakota, where he grew up and was attending a college reunion. He was convicted and fined $350. Brady later had no trouble winning reelection and went on to become chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee before retiring from the House in 2023 after 26 years in office.

In December 2012, Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) issued a public apology after being arrested for drunken driving in Alexandria, Virginia. Alexandria police said at the time that an officer noticed Crapo’s vehicle run through a red traffic light, and after the vehicle was stopped, the officer conducted field sobriety tests, which Crapo failed. Crapo, a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints who previously said he didn’t drink alcohol, was arrested for DUI and taken into custody without incident.

Crapo, like Min a Harvard Law graduate, in January 2013 pleaded guilty to DUI in court and was sentenced to 180 days, all of them suspended. He also paid a $250 fine and court fees, took a DUI course, and had his driver's license suspended for 12 months.

The incident didn’t have a long-term effect on Crapo’s political career. Idaho voters easily returned him to the Senate in the 2016 and 2022 elections.

One of the most prominent cases of a DUI having an effect on a political race came in the frantic closing days of the 2000 presidential race. On Nov. 2, 2000, five days before Election Day, news surfaced that Texas Gov. George W. Bush, the Republican presidential nominee, had been charged with DUI on Labor Day weekend in Kennebunkport, Maine, in 1976, when he was 30.

Bush’s chief strategist, Karl Rove, said for years after the incident that it likely led to a loss of support among some evangelical and other socially conservative supporters — which became more conspicuous due to the extended 2000 post-Election Day legal and political maneuvering in Florida, where Bush ended up beating Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic nominee, by 537 votes out of more than 6 million cast.

“If Bush did drop 2 percent nationally in the vote because of the DUI revelation, then it probably cost him four additional states that he lost by less than 1 percent — New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oregon,” Rove wrote in his 2010 memoir, Courage and Consequence: My Life as a Conservative in the Fight.

Had Bush won those states, it “would have allowed him to win the White House without Florida,” Rove recalled. “Of the things I would redo in the 2000 election, making a timely announcement about Bush’s DUI would top the list.”

Candidates like Min seem to have got that message, putting out the news on their own terms before journalists find out from law enforcement. And Min's DUI episode came more than a year before the June 2024 primary for the House seat he’s seeking.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

But Min's DUI arrest is likely to come back up, whether by his political rivals or outside supporters, particularly with court proceedings scheduled in the coming months. Three common punishments for a first-time DUI conviction in California include up to three years of probation, a fine between $390 and $1,000, and the mandatory completion of a 30-hour first-offender alcohol program, the price of which is $500.

Min, with his elite legal background and as a sitting officeholder, can’t argue he didn’t know better.

Tags: 2024 Elections, California, Drunken Driving, George W. Bush, News, Campaign

Original Author: David Mark

Original Location: Southern California House Democratic hopeful’s DUI arrest dampens party's 2024 prospects to win a majority

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The 2024 election cycle has kicked off. Though Election Day is over a year away, the race is well under way. 

President Joe Biden announced he will seek another term, and with former President Donald Trump's hat also in the ring, the possibility of a 2020 rematch is distinct. Though the Democratic establishment is expected to fall firmly behind Biden, the Republican side is more of a toss-up. 

Trump-endorsed candidates suffered in the midterm elections, and with his legal troubles mounting the GOP may be inclined to choose another nominee. Expectations have swirled that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is the man for the job, but with polls confirming Trump's enduring grip on the party's base the former president is still the man to beat. 

Start the day smarter. Get all the news you need in your inbox each morning.

Here are the latest developments on the path to the 2024 election: 

And here are the candidates who have announced their intention to run for president in the 2024 election:  

Joe Biden

© Carolyn Kaster, AP President Joe Biden speaks during the White House Correspondents' Association dinner at the Washington Hilton in Washington, Saturday, April 29, 2023. Biden announced his reelection campaign on April 25. His approval rating was 40% the previous month. Biden would be 86 at the end of a second term, leading to fears that he's too old to keep such a demanding job.

Political party: Democrat

Age: 80

Family: Biden has spent the bulk of his career talking candidly about grief. He lost his first wife Neilia Hunter and their one-year-old daughter Naomi in a 1972 car accident shortly after winning his first Senate race. His two young sons, Beau and Hunter, were injured in the crash but survived. In 2015, Biden lost Beau to brain cancer and has made it a major political goal to champion cancer research.

He remarried in 1977, tying the knot with now First Lady Jill Biden. The two share one daughter, Ashley, and a large clan of grandchildren.

Biden's son Hunter has become the subject of scandal in latest years. The GOP-led House has seized on Hunter's business dealings, hosting hearings to investigate his finances and the potential influence he has on his father.

Previous political experience: Joe Biden is a veteran of the Senate. First elected in 1972, he served as a senator from Delaware for 36 years before being elected as vice president on the Obama ticket in 2008.

After serving two terms as vice president, Biden took a brief hiatus from official government work before returning to run, and win, in 2020.

More on Biden's 2024 presidential candidacy

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

© Scott Eisen, Getty Images Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially announces his candidacy for President on April 19, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts.

Party: Democratic

Age: 69

Family: Kennedy bears a powerful last name in Democratic politics. He is the son of Robert F. Kennedy, the former attorney general who was assassinated during a 1968 presidential run, and the nephew of former president John F. Kennedy.

Kennedy has been married three times and has six children. He wed current wife Cheryl Hines in 2014. Hines is a television star best known for her role on "Curb Your Enthusiasm."

Previous political experience: Kennedy is an environmental lawyer who is most famous in the political realm for trumpeting a debunked theory that vaccines can be linked to autism.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Kennedy vocally opposed vaccine mandates, calling them an infringement on individual liberty and at times using the Holocaust as a historical comparison. In 2017, former president Trump invited Kennedy to head up a presidential commission on vaccine safety. 

More on Kennedy's 2024 presidential candidacy 

Marianne Williamson

Political party: Democratic

Age: 70

Family: Williamson was married once in the late 1970s to a Houston businessman whom she has not named. She has one daughter, India Emmanuelle, whose father has not been publicly identified.

Previous political experience: Williamson is a self-help author, and spiritual leader who has dabbled in politics, mounting an unsuccessful campaign for the presidency in 2020. Then she was largely drowned out by a crowded Democratic field and written off as a fringe candidate.

She is thus far one of only two Democrats to formally announce a challenge to sitting President Joe Biden, whom the party is likely to coalesce around.

More on Williamson's 2024 presidential candidacy 

Ron DeSantis

© Scott Eisen, Getty Images Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis delivers remarks during his "Our Great American Comeback" Tour stop on June 1, 2023 in Laconia, New Hampshire.

Political party: Republican

Age: 44

Family: The governor wed former television host Casey DeSantis in 2009 and the couple share two daughters Madison and Mamie and one son Mason.

Previous political experience: DeSantis currently serves as the 46^th governor of Florida. His national profile grew during the pandemic when he spoke out publicly against mask mandates and pushed to keep many Florida businesses and schools open. Since then, he has captured national attention with controversial legislative measures on education and immigration.

While in law school, DeSantis joined the U.S. Navy as a JAG officer, later deploying to Iraq for active duty. Prior to his run for governor, he served in the House of Representatives as a congressman for Florida's 6^th district for three terms from 2013 to 2018.  

He is widely viewed as Trump’s biggest threat in the Republican primary. Similar in politics but different in demeanor, DeSantis represents a younger, some say more predictable, alternative to the former president.

More on Desantis' 2024 Presidential Candidacy

Larry Elder

© Marcio Jose Sanchez, AP Larry Elder, who has emerged as the Republican frontunner in latest polling and fundraising for the Sept. 14 recall election of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, rallies with supporters on July 13 in Norwalk.

Political party: Republican

Age: 70

Family: Elder has no children and has been married once. The couple divorced after two years and Elder was engaged again to Alexandra Datig from 2013 to 2015. Amid his candidacy for California governor Datig went public with an allegation that Elder had once brandished a gun at her while high on marijuana.

Previous political experience: Elder is a lawyer and conservative talk show host who mounted a campaign against California governor Gavin Newsom in 2021's recall election. Though he lost, Elder received the highest number of votes of any candidate besides Newsom.

Elder announced his candidacy on Fox News' "Tucker Carlson Tonight," tweeting afterward "America is in decline, but this decline is not inevitable. We can enter a new American Golden Age, but we must choose a leader who can bring us there. That’s why I’m running for President."

More on Elder's 2024 presidential candidacy 

Nikki Haley

© Ken Ruinard / staff Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley announced a 2024 run for U.S. President Tuesday via Twitter, and rallies with supporters at the Visitors Center in Charleston, S.C. Wednesday, February 15, 2023.

Political party: Republican

Age: 51

Family: Haley is one of four children born to Indian-American parents in Bamberg, South Carolina - a town she has described as divided by race.

She and her husband of 26 years Michael live still in South Carolina where they are raising two children Rena and Nalin.

Previous political experience: Haley started her political career in the South Carolina state legislature where she served for 6 years before mounting a successful campaign for the governor's office in 2010. She won reelection in 2014 and has bragged that she has "never lost a race."

In 2016, former President Trump nominated Haley to be U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, a position she held for a year before unexpectedly stepping down in 2018. Haley has played up her role as a female candidate in what is expected to be a largely male primary field. "May the best woman win,” she quipped in an interview with Fox News.

More on Haley's 2024 presidential candidacy 

Asa Hutchinson

© Sue Ogrocki, AP Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is surrounded by family members after formally announcing his Republican campaign for president, Wednesday, April 26, 2023, in Bentonville, Ark.

Political party: Republican

Age: 72

Family: Hutchinson has been married to wife Susan since 1973, and the two share four children and seven grandchildren.

Previous political experience: Hutchinson has had a long career in Republican politics. He was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives to serve Arkansas' 3rd district in 1997; he served until 2001, when he was appointed DEA administrator and later undersecretary for the Department of Homeland Security for the Bush Administration.

While in the House Hutchinson served as impeachment manager in the trial of former president (and fellow Arkansas native) Bill Clinton. After leaving Washington he was elected 46th Governor of Arkansas. He served for two terms, from 2015 to 2023.

More on Hutchinson's 2024 presidential candidacy 

Vivek Ramaswamy

© Paul Beaty, AP Republican Presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy speaks outside the shuttered former South Shore High School where the city of Chicago plans to house illegal immigrants Friday, May 19, 2023, in Chicago.

Political party: Republican

Age: 37

Family: Ramaswamy married Apoorva Tewari, a throat surgeon and assistant professor at the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, in 2015. The pair have two sons together. 

Previous political experience: Ramaswamy is framing himself as an outsider, an entrepreneur-turned-political-hopeful who will give the establishment a run for its money. 

He is a former biotech investor who founded pharmaceutical research company Roivant Sciences in 2014. Ramaswamy left the company in 2020 amid clashes with colleagues over how to respond to the murder of George Floyd and the public outcry that followed. He now heads up Strive Asset Management. 

He is the author of three books, including "Woke Inc.: Inside Corporate America's Social Justice Scam," which explores how American politics and capitalism have become increasingly intertwined. 

More on Ramaswamy's 2024 presidential candidacy 

Tim Scott

© Patrick Semansky, AP Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., speaks in front of President Donald Trump and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., during a campaign rally, Friday, Feb. 28, 2020, in North Charleston, S.C. When Scott launched his campaign for the White House last week, the notoriously prickly former President Donald Trump welcomed his new competitor with open arms. “Good luck to Senator Tim Scott in entering the Republican Presidential Primary Race,” Trump said.

Political party: Republican

Age: 57

Family: Scott is unmarried, with no children. He was raised by a single mother in North Charleston and has one brother.

Previous political experience: Scott first entered politics in 1995 during a special election for City Council in Charleston. His profile grew nationally when he suggested posting the 10 Commandments outside the the council building, a proposal that was denied.

Scott served for two years in the state legislature before being elected in 2010 to the House of Representatives for South Carolina's 1st district. He served one term before being appointed to the Senate by then-governor Nikki Haley and becoming the first Black U.S. senator from the state.

Scott is pitching himself as a more hopeful alternative to Trump, drawing on Reagan-era ideals and centering a tone of optimism.

More on Scott's 2024 presidential candidacy

Donald Trump

© CHANDAN KHANNA, AFP via Getty Images Former US president Donald Trump speaks during a press conference following his court appearance over an alleged 'hush-money' payment, at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, on April 4, 2023.

Political party: Republican

Age: 76

Family: Trump is the son of real estate magnate Fred Trump. Born and bred in New York, he first made his name developing skyscrapers and casinos.

Trump first married in 1977, wedding Czech-born model Ivana. The two were married for 13 years and share three children: Ivanka, Donald Jr. and Eric. In 1993 Trump married actress and model Marla Maples. The two had one daughter: Tiffany. Following his divorce from Maples, Trump tied the knot for a final time with model Melania, who is mother to his youngest child, Barron.

Trump's family was uncharacteristically involved in his presidency. Ivanka and her husband Jared Kushner played prominent roles in the administration, and both Don Jr. and Eric were often cited as close advisors.

Previous political experience:  When Trump entered the race in 2016, he branded himself as a political outsider, a businessman separate from the establishment, ready to "drain the swamp."

Prior to 2016 he dabbled in politics, often sounding off on controversial issues like the birther movement meant to cast doubt on Barack Obama's citizenship and the guiltiness of the now-exonerated Central Park Five. However, he was still primarily known for real estate and his forays into reality television, famously starring in "The Apprentice."

In 2016, Trump shocked pollsters by securing victory over Hillary Clinton in the presidential race. He served a full four-year term and was defeated by Biden in his reelection bid.

More on Trump's 2024 presidential candidacy

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Meet the 2024 presidential election candidates: These Democrats and Republicans are running

For decades, California has been able to fund a sprawling administration whose agencies have federal-size budgets and wide latitude to set and enforce rules. But as the nation has fractured along cultural and economic lines, Republican governors, like Greg Abbott of Texas and Ron DeSantis of Florida, have sought to experiment with legislative activism of their own — a kind of anti-California effect. Recently, a number of red states have tried to create conservative guidelines for textbooks, explored ways of preventing companies from paying for employees’ abortions, tried to stop (or at least slow) the move away from fossil fuels and sought to limit Medicaid patients’ access to gender-transition care.

Newsom wants California to aggressively meet this new challenge. Aides to the governor say he often shows up to morning meetings fuming about some new bill signed by a Republican governor, seeking ideas for how to counter. When Texas passed a law allowing private citizens to sue abortion doctors, Newsom used it as a model for legislation that would allow Californians to sue manufacturers of illegal guns. When Walgreens announced that it would not sell mifepristone, an abortion medication, in certain states, Newsom responded on Twitter, writing that California would try to end a contract with the pharmacy.

What Newsom aspires to is a whole new kind of California effect, one that goes way beyond environmental and consumer regulations — regulations that, even though they had national impact, were first and foremost about improving life for California residents. This fight is purely about changing behavior beyond the borders of his state. Newsom describes the gun law as his “first foray” into this area, promising that he is “barely winding up.” If companies accede to Republican demands to deny abortion coverage or curb diversity and clean-energy efforts, he warns, they should expect to pay a financial price in California. “All these corporations, they’re silent, they’re complicit in all of this,” Newsom says. “In the spirit of Reagan, it’s a time for choosing.”

The California effect began with smog. In 1972, Mary Nichols was a young environmental lawyer driving through the haze to a Los Angeles courthouse, where she hoped a legal victory would help Boost the region’s air pollution. Two years earlier, Congress passed the Clean Air Act, and Nichols’s firm was arguing that the law required the E.P.A. to compel California to create a plan to solve the smog problem — in other words, that it was the federal government’s responsibility to push the state to act. The case was ultimately successful, and it was the start of Nichols’s career as one of the auto industry’s most powerful regulators. From her perch on the West Coast, she would spend the next five decades doing the reverse: Instead of using the federal government to change California, she would use California to change the nation.

Seven years after the Clean Air Act lawsuit, Gov. Jerry Brown appointed Nichols to be chairwoman of the California Air Resources Board (CARB), a pollution agency created in 1967. Around that time, Congress, in response to the demands of the influential California delegation, gave the state a powerful regulatory tool: a waiver that allowed California, and only California, to set air-quality standards higher than the federal government’s. The auto industry lobbied fiercely against the waiver, panic that California would use it to determine policy for the whole country, which of course it did: As CARB forced carmakers to reduce particulate matter and toxins like nitrogen oxides and ozone, the rules Nichols put in place became the national standard.

• The commercial real estate sector is at risk of a recession, warned Ross Perot Jr.
• The real estate billionaire said banks needed to lend to the industry to avoid a sharp downturn.
• Some lenders have pulled back in fear of further bank runs and tighter regulations.

The US commercial real estate sector will suffer a painful downturn unless wary banks resume lending to developers, Ross Perot Jr. warned.

"The key to commercial real estate today though will be banking," the real estate billionaire and son of two-time presidential candidate Ross Perot told Bloomberg on Wednesday. "If the industry can't get a construction loan, real estate will have a recession."

Several commentators including Elon Musk and Bill Ackman have sounded the alarm on commercial real estate in latest weeks. The catalyst for their concerns? The Fed hiking interest rates from nearly zero to upwards of 5% since last spring in an effort to curb inflation.

Higher rates encourage saving over spending and raise borrowing costs, which tends to pull down asset prices. That's because investors can earn solid, guaranteed returns from bonds and savings accounts, which erodes the appeal of riskier assets such as stocks and real estate.

Meanwhile, consumers are facing historic inflation and higher monthly payments for their credit cards, car loans, mortgages, and other debts. If consumer spending falls as a result, a recession may set in, which tends to be bad news for most industries.

Moreover, higher rates contributed to the latest troubles at Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic, and other lenders. Some banks have now started to make fewer, safer loans in anticipation of further bank runs and tighter regulations, stoking worries of a broader credit crunch.

Between sliding asset values, bigger debt costs, a potential recession, and smaller banks pulling back on lending, the commercial real estate industry — which borrows heavily from regional banks —is facing a raft of headwinds.

Indeed, the battle to secure bank financing has left some real estate firms with no choice but to borrow from Perot Jr. and his companies.

"They would not come to us if they could go to a bank," the chairman of The Perot Group and Hillwood told Bloomberg. "That is why we will have a real estate recession if the banks do not start lending."

Critics: CNN Trump forum turned into campaign rally

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Here are all the official 2024 presidential candidates so far.

More on 2024 presidential candidates: These are the Democrats and Republicans that are in the race

© BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI, AFP via Getty Images US President Joe Biden attends a bilateral meeting with Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese as part of the G7 Leaders' Summit in Hiroshima on May 20, 2023. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images) ORIG FILE ID: AFP_33FM3MN.jpg

Joe Biden

Biden officially launched his 2024 reelection bid in April, telling Americans "let's finish this job."

"This is not a time to be complacent," Biden said in the three-minute video. "That's why I'm running for reelection. Because I know America. I know we're good and decent people. I know we're still a country that believes in honesty and respect and treating each other with dignity."  

Although 78% of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing, less than half (47%) think he should run again in 2024, according to The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. Overall, just 26% of Americans want him to run.

His background: Biden, 80, was elected president in 2020 and is already the oldest-serving president. He would be 86 when he finishes a second term if he wins reelection. He served as vice president under former President Barack Obama from 2008 to 2016 and has held public office for more than 50 years. He was born in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

His views: Biden's campaign is focused on the "battle for the soul of America," doubling down on the central message of his campaign four years ago. He said the question facing the nation is "whether, in the years ahead, we have more freedom or less freedom, more rights or fewer."

© CHANDAN KHANNA, AFP via Getty Images Former US president Donald Trump speaks during a press conference following his court appearance over an alleged 'hush-money' payment, at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, on April 4, 2023.

Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump announced in November that he would seek the presidency again in 2024 amid a flurry of legal inquiries and skepticism from other Republicans over whether he’s the right candidate for the job. 

"America's comeback starts right now," Trump said during his speech at his Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Florida.

His background: Trump, 76, was elected president in 2016, but lost his reelection bid in 2020. He falsely claimed – and still claims – he won the election. He is the only president to be impeached twice by Congress. Before entering politics, he ran his father’s real estate company, renaming it the Trump Organization. He was born in Queens, New York.

His views: The former president has centered much of his campaign on his purported “political persecution” by Democrats. He supports securing America’s borders, “reclaiming free speech,” and “dismantling the Deep State,” according to his campaign website. He has said he would consider pardoning participants in the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot, which was inspired by his false claims of election fraud.

© ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS, AFP via Getty Images Florida Governor and 2024 Presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis speaks during for a campaign event at Port Neal Welding Company in Salix, Iowa, on May 31, 2023. The event, part of "Our Great American Comeback Tour," is a four-day tour through twelve cities in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Ron DeSantis

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis launched his bid for the nation's highest office in May after months of speculation he'd serve as Trump's toughest competition in a Republican primary.

“The tired dogmas of the past are inadequate for a vibrant future. We must look forward, not look backwards," DeSantis said in Iowa during his first public appearance as a presidential candidate. "We must have the courage to lead, and we must have the strength to win, because the stakes couldn’t be higher.”

DeSantis officially kicked off his candidacy in a Twitter event marred by technical difficulties. He's pitching himself to Republican voters and donors as a less-dramatic alternative to Trump. Allies say he is more adept at getting things done after dramatically reshaping Florida’s political landscape with a barrage of conservative laws and policies.

His background: DeSantis was born in Jacksonville, Florida and was educated at both Yale University and Harvard Law School. He served in the U.S. Navy, and worked as a prosecutor and state congressman before serving as Florida's governor.

His views: DeSantis is campaigning on a hard-right agenda to make America look more like Florida. He is in favor of "defending parental rights and eliminating CRT," and is anti-abortion and pro-Second Amendment.

© Ken Ruinard / staff Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley announced a 2024 run for U.S. President Tuesday via Twitter, and rallies with supporters at the Visitors Center in Charleston, S.C. Wednesday, February 15, 2023.

Nikki Haley

Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley was the second prominent Republican to enter the 2024 presidential race after Trump, calling for a “new generation” of leaders.

“We need someone who can shake up Washington and the political class,” said Haley, who was also formerly South Carolina’s governor.

The 51-year-old candidate has touted her youth compared to other prominent figures in politics, making “mental competency tests for politicians over 75 years old” a hallmark of her campaign. 

Her background: The daughter of Indian immigrants, Haley hails from Bamberg, South Carolina. Before serving as U.N. ambassador, she served as a South Carolina's first female governor and a state legislator. Her first job at 13-years-old was keeping the books for her family’s clothing store, according to her Cabinet biography.

Her views: Haley is anti-abortion and pro-Israel. She supports cracking down on illegal immigration and "getting tough" on China and Russia. She has supported Trump in the past but also criticized him after the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol attack.

© Charles Krupa, AP Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., speaks during a town hall, Monday, May 8, 2023, in Manchester, N.H. Scott recently launched an exploratory committee for a 2024 GOP presidential bid, a step that comes just shy of making his campaign official.

Tim Scott

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott officially entered the presidential race May 19 when he filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission.

"American families are starving for hope," Scott tweeted Thursday. "We need to have faith. Faith in God, faith in each other, and faith in America."

The lone Black Republican in the Senate, Scott is vying to be the first African-American to win the GOP nomination. 

His background: Scott grew up in North Charleston, South Carolina in a “poor, single-parent household,” according to his website.

His views: Scott joined the Senate in 2013. He’s anti-abortion and pro-Second Amendment. He says on his website that his “signature legislation,” Opportunity Zones, put $75 billion into “distressed communities” across the country.

© Staton Breidenthal, AP In this March 23, 2020 file photo, Gov. Asa Hutchinson, right, speaks in Little Rock, Ark.

Asa Hutchinson

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, a Republican, launched his presidential campaign in April, emphasizing his heartland upbringing in a hometown speech.

"This campaign is about courage. It is about making the tough decisions... and we've got our work cut out for us," he said.

Hutchinson has been one of Trump’s most outspoken critics in the GOP field since entering the race. A former federal prosecutor, the 72-year-old candidate urged Trump to exit the 2024 contest before he was formally charged in a New York hush-money case.

His background: Hutchinson was raised in the rural hills of Arkansas, which he said laid the groundwork for his early political awareness. Hauling hay, sacking groceries and being a janitor taught him the "dignity of work,” he said.

His views: He supports lower taxes, a strong national defense and opposing abortion. He has said the Biden administration "stood on the sidelines" in the face of crime and “turned its back on the American worker."

© Jack Gruber, Jack Gruber-USA TODAY Mar 3, 2023; National Harbor, MD, USA; Vivek Ramaswamy during the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC 2023, at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center on March 3, 2023.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek Ramaswamy, a wealthy biotech entrepreneur and “anti-woke” activist, entered the 2024 presidential race in February.

The 37-year-old candidate launched his longshot bid by decrying what he called a “national identity crisis,” driven by a left-wing ideology that has replaced “faith, patriotism and hard work” with “new secular religions like COVID-ism, climate-ism and gender ideology."

Author of the book “Woke, Inc.,” Ramaswamy centers much of his messaging around dismantling bureaucracies, whether in corporate America or Washington, D.C.

His background: The son of Indian immigrants, Ramaswamy grew up in the Cincinnati suburb of Evendale. He attended Harvard to study biology and graduated Yale Law School the same year as U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, another southwest Ohio native.

His views: He has peddled ideas such as ending affirmative action and eliminating the Department of Education. His elevator pitch: He'll go farther than Trump ever did or could today.

Marianne Williamson

Marianne Williamson, a self-help author who unsuccessfully ran for president in 2020, launched another longshot campaign in March, becoming the first Democrat to formally challenge Biden’s reelection bid.

“We are upset about this country, we’re panic about this country,” Williamson told a crowd of more than 600 at a kickoff in Washington, D.C. “It is our job to create a vision of justice and love that is so powerful that it will override the forces of hatred and injustice and fear.”

The Democratic Party is firmly aligned behind Biden; it does not plan to hold primary debates, even if other Democrats join Williamson in challenging the president.

Her background: The 70-year-old candidate is a Texas native who now lives in Beverly Hills, California. A onetime spiritual adviser to Oprah Winfrey, Williamson has authored more than a dozen books and ran an unsuccessful independent congressional campaign in California in 2014. 

Her views: Williamson is in favor of abortion rights, a single-payer health care system and reparations for the descendants of formerly enslaved Americans. She has suggested creating a U.S. Department of Children and Youth to increase child advocacy, and a U.S. Department of Peace to systemize the suppression of violence.

© Hans Pennink, AP Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at the New York State Capitol, May 14, 2019, in Albany, N.Y. Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine activist and scion of one of the country’s most famous political families, is running for president. Kennedy, a Democrat, filed a statement of candidacy Wednesday, April 6, 2023, with the Federal Election Commission.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine activist from a storied political family, became the second Democrat to challenge Biden for the White House in April with the launch of his 2024 presidential bid.

"My mission over the next 18 months of this campaign and throughout my presidency will be to end the corrupt merger of state and corporate power that is threatening... to impose a new kind of corporate feudalism in our country,” said Kennedy.

The son of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of former President John F. Kennedy, both assassinated in the 1960s, Kennedy has been the subject of latest controversies for criticizing COVID-19 restrictions, making anti-vaccine comments and spreading misinformation about the pandemic and vaccines.

His background: Kennedy, 69, served as an attorney for the nonprofit Natural Resources Defense Council for over three decades. He founded Waterkeeper Alliance, a network of environmental organizations advocating for clean water, and the anti-vaccine nonprofit Children’s Health Defense.

His views: He is campaigning on a platform of fighting for the "liberties guaranteed by the Constitution," according to his campaign website.His stance on vaccines resembles those of Trump, who is running for the Republican presidential ticket in 2024.

© Provided by USA TODAY Former Vice President Mike Pence to announce run for president in June 7 campaign kickoff

Other expected candidates

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is expected to launch his presidential campaign on June 6, and former Vice President Mike Pence is slated to launch his on June 7.

This story will be updated as additional candidates officially enter the race.

Contributing: Ken Tran, Haley BeMiller, Associated Press

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who's officially running for president in 2024? Get to know the candidates

© Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images, Scott Olson/Getty Images, and Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP Photo Clockwise: Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy; former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson; North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images, Scott Olson/Getty Images, and Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP Photo

• 10 people will soon be in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. Only one will get it.
• Eight of those candidates are polling in the single digits.
• Insider asked those who've been through it before why they went through it at all when they were sure to lose.

At least 10 Republicans will be running for president before this month is up. Only one will actually get the nomination. And that person might still lose the presidency. 

If the election was held today, polling shows former President Donald Trump would be the GOP nominee. A distant second is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

None of the other candidates are above 5% in national polls. They include former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and radio host Larry Elder. Former

Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum are expected to make their run official within the next couple of weeks.

It's a stunning number of entrants for an experience that is, according to Sen. Marco Rubio's 2016 presidential campaign manager Terry Sullivan, "horrendous," "grueling," and the "most dehumanizing thing you'll ever do."

"If you're going to do it, you have to have a good rationale for why you're doing it," Sullivan, who is now a founding partner of the public affairs firm Firehouse Strategies, told Insider.

With that reality and long odds in a crowded field of candidates, why run at all? Why put yourself and your family through the brutal process of having rivals and the media turn over every detail of your life and mock your idiosyncrasies?

Insider spoke with political observers as well as people who've tried — and failed — to win the White House before. It turns out also-rans have avenues to reap benefits that have nothing to do with actually taking the Oath of Office. The perks may even outweigh the possibility of humiliation at the hands of Trump.

Here are just some of the ways ex-presidential candidates can win by losing.

© Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Vice President Kamala Harris. Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

They can set themselves up for a Cabinet spot or another top job

People running for president aren't just auditioning for the highest office in the world — they could also be auditioning for a lot of other prime jobs in a future administration. 

Things turned out well for Pete Buttigieg, who was the little-known Millenial Mayor of South Bend, Indiana before he ran for president in 2020. Now he's secretary of transportation, holding the purse strings for billions of federal dollars in infrastructure spending. 

A presidential run was even more beneficial for then-Sen. Kamala Harris of California, who — despite accusing her former 2020 rival Joe Biden of racism during a debate — became the first woman of color to be elected vice president.

GOP candidates in the 2024 field could similarly wind up with top jobs. Stacy Rosenberg, a political communications expert at Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy, told Insider she could see Haley or Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin — who is still mulling a run — being on a GOP running mate shortlist. 

"Even if they don't win the primary, I think they would have a shot at being picked for the VP spot," she said. "They could be in the game for that reason — to show their popularity and their ability to command a room."

They can make a lot of money from selling books 

Publishers have shown huge interest in candidates who previously ran for president, and are willing to pay six-figure advances for them to dish about their lives or time in politics. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who ran for president in 2020, received a $730,350 advance from Macmillan Publishing, her financial disclosure shows. 

Sen. Bernie Sanders, who competitively ran for president in 2016 and 2020, earned $170,000 in book royalties alone in 2022 for his recently published best-selling book, "It's OK to Be Angry About Capitalism."

Senators, who earn a $174,000 annual salary, can significantly pad their income with these kinds of deals. Often, candidates can even get the book deals before they run for president, especially if there's a lot of buzz around them.

Candidates can then use the books to fundraise and help voters get to know them better. Penning a memoir has "almost become a prerequisite" to seeking the presidency, J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Insider.

© Spencer Platt/Getty Images Former 2016 presidential candidate Mike Huckabee. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

They can also make a lot of money from TV and radio deals, or commercials

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is a prime example of someone who parlayed presidential losses into a full-time media gig. He won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, lost them in 2016, and through it all got a spot on Fox News and on radio.

Elder, meanwhile, shot a commercial with the anti-inflammation supplement Relief Factor after an unsuccessful run in the 2021 California recall election. Now that he's in the 2024 race, he might be able to find other similar opportunities. 

A presidential candidate who really takes off but then loses could maybe even land a deal with a streaming service to participate in a documentary, Rosenberg said. The Obamas struck a major deal with Netflix to launch several features, albeit after two terms.

"If you're not serious about running and winning — and of course, they'll all say they are — but if you're not serious about that, then running for president essentially is a vehicle to up books sales, speaking fees, and potential endorsements," Republican strategist Doug Heye told Insider. 

Running for president "opens doors," Sullivan acknowledged. While some run to win, others "run as a vanity project or some sort of longer play," he said. 

It's a chance for never-Trumpers to attack Trump

Adam Kinzinger hasn't announced a run for president, but the former congressman from Illinois and January 6 Committee member has mused that he would "love" to run against Trump "to be able to stand up and call out the garbage." 

That could be a motivation for 2024 candidates already in the race. "For some candidates, an important reason to get in the race is to make sure the greater vision of being a Republican is shared with voters — that there is another side to conservatism than the Donald Trump grievance, Archie Bunker-style," Sullivan said.  

Certainly, some Republicans in the primary have openly criticized Trump, such as Hutchinson. Rosenberg said she thought he might view it as his duty to take Trump on, to show voters what he thought was right. 

Ex-candidates can become more effective at getting their policies passed  

Sanders might have lost the Democratic nomination twice, but he did succeed at moving the party further to the left, driving a huge voting bloc of young progressives. Because of his influence, the United States is on the way to negotiating the price of some prescription drugs, and a growing number of Democrats are willing to put their name on legislation that would move everyone living in the country onto a government-funded healthcare plan. 

Even little-known Sen. Michael Benet of Colorado, who ran in 2020, saw his biggest cause, the Child Tax Credit, become a reality in the COVID-19 relief package Biden signed into law. Running for president allows elected leaders to be "a bigger player on any issue they want to be," Heye said.

"This gives you more experience, more batting practice, even if you're not making it to the last primary states," Heye said. 

Similarly, legislators can develop interests in other causes while visiting other parts of the United States. Rubio told Insider about his time on the 2016 trail, when he heard horror stories about people plagued by opioid abuse and small towns fighting for survival as economic blows kept coming.

"These weren't pleasant experiences. But they were important ones that sort of changed my approach to a number of issues and raised new ones in my mind," the Florida Republican said.  "It changes you. I think it made me a better senator."

Sen. John Hickenlooper, a former two-term governor of Colorado who wound up flipping a GOP seat on Capitol Hill after bailing on a short-lived presidential campaign that lingered around 1% in polls, told Insider his bid for the White House was a whirlwind of relationship-building.

"A lot of times you're with other candidates," Hickenlooper said. "That's the first time I got to know Kamala Harris as a person. Same with Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders."

"It really expanded my knowledge of just how many different possible solutions there are to a given problem," he continued. "And it helped me think through how do you create a compromise around these competing solutions." 

© David J. Phillip/AP Photo CNN host and debate moderator Wolf Blitzer stands in front of the Republican presidential candidates in 2016. David J. Phillip/AP Photo

The slim chance they unexpectedly take off 

Let's face it: Very few people predicted Trump would win the presidency in 2016. Ever since the former reality TV star and real estate mogul stunned the world with his upset against Hillary Clinton, it seems like a "why-not-me?" outlook has taken hold among both Republican and Democratic presidential candidates. 

Trump is the frontrunner now, but the circumstances could change during the debates and as the campaign season moves ahead. "Where someone is in the polls doesn't mean that's where they'll end up come Iowa and New Hampshire," Heye said. Scott, for instance, has a huge campaign fundraising haul that he has yet to spend. 

Underdogs have been elected president before, including then-Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter and then-Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton. 

"They just don't know what else is going to drop," Rosenberg said of the GOP candidates in the mix. "They might be truly hopeful that they can break through." 

After all, Trump's legal, political, and personal liabilities are piling up — and he's also in his late 70s. "If something happens with Trump's health and the field is fluid, why close that door?" Coleman asked.

Winning a presidential race in the future

Losing the presidency on the first or even second try doesn't spell doom for a shot at the White House. Numerous presidents were once failed presidential candidates, including Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, George H.W. Bush — and Biden. 

Sometimes candidates get better at crafting their message, or they happen to run at a time when voters think they're the right person for the job. 

"The only way to learn how to run for president," Sullivan said, "is to run for president."